Today, BTC has reached its highest point in history, and it is indeed very strong. According to past history, the surge will only occur after the halving, when there is an imbalance between supply and demand. But this time it is different, the surge occurred before the halving. The reason is inseparable from the massive amount of funds entering the ETF, and all prices are the accumulation of volume.
So the question is, how high will BTC go in this wave? Many people open their mouths and say: 100,000, 150,000, 200,000,
We can look at an indicator of glassnode, which is also very interesting.
First of all, let me introduce to you that the black line in the above picture is the price of BTC, the red line is 5 times the 2-year moving average (red), and the green line is the 2-year moving average (green)
Historically, price trades below the 2-year moving average have produced huge returns and have signaled lows in bear market cycles.
Historically, prices trading above 5x the 2-year moving average has been a signal of a bull market cycle top and an area for investors to reduce risk.
Judging from historical data, during the three previous halvings, the bull market would exceed the red line or approach the red line.
In 2012, there was the first halving, and in 2013-2014 there was the first big bull market.
In 2016, the second halving, and the second bull market in 2017
The third halving in 2020 and the third bull market in 2021
On April 21, 2024, the fourth halving will bring a small bull market ahead of schedule, and it is close to a historical high. After the bull market is halved, the future price will not be 69,000.
There is a saying in the financial circle: History will not be repeated, but it will be surprisingly similar.
The current price is still far from the red line. If we stick to the old ways, the red line price will be 147,000 USDT.
If, I mean if, BTC can rise to 15WUSDT, then for the generation born in the 90s and 00s, it is indeed an opportunity to change their destiny.
Cherish this opportunity. All the above information is personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice.
