Today's Bitcoin market continues to maintain a volatile pattern. After the U.S. stock market opens, market volatility and trading volume are expected to increase, which will help us see the supply and demand situation more clearly. From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating in a high range, and a double bottom pattern seems to have formed, but the performance after the U.S. stock market opens will be crucial.
The trading volume in recent days has been relatively low, making it difficult for us to accurately judge the strength of demand. The current resistance level is above $100,000, while the support level is around $92,000. Therefore, Bitcoin may continue to maintain a volatile state in the short term, waiting for trading volume to further confirm market trends.
Current market sentiment has gradually retreated from a state of extreme greed to the greed range. Today's greed index is 79. It reminds me that financial markets often go against the grain; when others are fearful, I am greedy, when others are greedy, I exit!
In terms of altcoins, there will be linked adjustments, the funding situation is average, and speculation sentiment is low. For the subsequent market situation, everyone should plan accordingly:
1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together, probability: 30%-40%
If 2025 becomes a one-sided upward market, with Bitcoin continuing to rise and altcoins performing well, we may see a repeat of the comprehensive upward situation from the past two months.
Action plan: buy quality altcoins on dips, seize the opportunity to layout.
2: Bitcoin rises, altcoins rise limited, probability: 50%-60%
This is similar to the market situation in 2024; the market may still fluctuate in the coming months, but overall it is more optimistic than in 2024 (because Bitcoin continues to rise). Certain areas will perform well.
Action plan: buy selected altcoins on dips, avoid overheated areas, and look for the next potential direction.
3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall, probability: 20%-30%
If this is the peak for altcoins, Bitcoin may continue to rise strongly while altcoins perform weakly.
Action plan: decisively clear out altcoins. Although there may be some drawdowns, if altcoins lack upward momentum, timely loss-cutting is still necessary.
In a bull market, rhythm is very important; fixed positions + liquid positions are an unbeatable configuration.
The bull market continues, and countless unknown coins or those previously overlooked will bounce out. When at the low point, you ignored them; at the moment of the surge, you can't afford them. Everyone must have read yesterday's article, it was a complete meal (Has Bitcoin stabilized? ZEN surged 457.82%! BGB exceeded 5.39, setting a new historical high, the platform ranks among the top three globally! Should we take profits on the altcoin surge?) BGB and ZEN have skyrocketed these past two days; after all, we entered BGB early, and today we made a big profit again. So at this time, playing with altcoins requires selecting strong sectors.
Meme, Rwa, Trump concept coins, etc.;
After Elon Musk's strict selection, the president's strict selection, and Grayscale's strict selection, now it's South Korea's turn to strictly select. Altcoins on CEX are eyeing Upbit's trading volume for speculation. The Korean market is always the main force in every bull market, with about 30% of people embracing crypto; it's quite scary.
Two major events to watch in January 2025:
1: FTX compensation expectations (there will be progress in January, compensation will be in fiat currency U)
2: Transfer of power to the new U.S. regime (expected around January 20)
Finally, let me recharge everyone's faith:
The cryptocurrency circle is about to welcome this round of the most glorious moment, just like the year-end annual meeting where the boss puts a large sum of money on the table, and you can use chopsticks to grab it within a time limit, whatever you grab belongs to you.
Some people are picky, looking here and there to grab, and while grabbing, they find other places where they can grab more, and rush over.
Some people, while happily grabbing in one place, desperately forget to put it back in their pockets. When time is running out, they accidentally loosen their chopsticks, and everything falls down, wasted efforts.