Master talks hot topics:
Let’s discuss this morning’s news: the Japanese DMM cryptocurrency exchange is about to be liquidated, which has created a panic atmosphere among many friends. But what I want to tell everyone is that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 80K or 70K has always been lower than the probability of rising to 110K.
Especially when you see that the monthly line is about to start—the next big bullish candle is already in sight. Yes, 4-5 consecutive bullish candles, would that be abnormal? This is just the market gathering strength.
Looking back at the last bull market, Bitcoin nearly broke 70K, and many thought it would crash. But from 36000 to 70K, everyone should remember: the starting point of this bull market could be around 15600, raising the base 4 times, so don’t just focus on the number '100K'—for this bull market, 100K is just a new milestone, not worth making a big fuss about.
Next, let’s talk about the optimistic expectations of a 'bull market for the next three years': some bloggers always believe that a Republican administration can bring endless bull markets, but I dare say that the bull market cycle you see is far more than three years.
If you want to 'sustain steadily' in a bull market, you need to first observe that Bitcoin has a strict bull-bear cycle, with each bull market generally lasting 12-16 months, with 16 months being the limit. Don’t fixate on an 'eternal bull market,' as trading spot for half a year may result in being pushed back to the original state by the market.
Speaking of the future long cycle—the next halving of Bitcoin is on April 17, 2028. Looking back from this point, the bear market cycle may start after April 2026, so everyone can remember this node and slowly start preparing.
Finally, regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, everyone can rest assured that by the end of 2024, the Fed will definitely announce a timeline for stopping rate cuts or even starting rate hikes by 2026. This will gradually tighten the market's liquidity, which is not friendly for the bulls.
Today is December 2nd, still in the bull market phase. I never consider myself very smart; in fact, what I can do is just stand in a 'relatively easy to succeed environment.' Ultimately, the market will humble everyone. If this is your first experience of such a cycle, I can only tell you that the market tuition is not cheap.
Additionally, the Fed's upcoming meeting minutes early Wednesday morning may trigger a short-term pullback, so Bitcoin might test a low around 93800. If this pullback happens, congratulations, you can boldly follow the master's medium-term bottom-fishing plan.
Remember, there often are short-term declines on the 4th and 5th of each month, which is a small rule favored by many experienced traders, so if there’s a significant drop in the next few days, don’t be afraid, act decisively!
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 98750
Second resistance level: 98100
Support level reference:
First support level: 95700
Second support level: 95000
Today's suggestion:
If the first support can maintain short-term stability, then the rebound perspective can be sustained; however, this range may also be broken, so the best short-term entry point can be set near the second support level of 95K.
Also, pay attention to the 120-day moving average as a phase support, maintaining the expectation of a rebound. As we have re-entered the high selling pressure zone, a certain phase of volatility and consolidation is expected, followed by bottoming and increasing the probability of a rebound.
12.2 Master’s wave segment pre-set:
Long entry reference: light long in the range of 96000-95700, if it pulls back to the range of 95300-95000, go long directly. Target: 97000-98100
Short entry reference: not applicable
