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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk will not get lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
Weekly Review
This week, from December 11 to December 18, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $43,884 and the lowest was close to $40,222, with a fluctuation range of about 8.91%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 41871, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
39000–43000: about 1.45 million pieces;
34000~38000: about 1.53 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 36,000-38,000 in the short term is 80%;
The probability that it will not rise below 45,000-47,000 in the short term is 57%.
Important news
Economic News
Fed Chairman Williams refuted Powell's remarks on rate cuts, saying it was too early to consider a rate cut in March. The rebuttal was of no avail.
Affected by the potential interest rate cut, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell from above 5% at the end of October to below 4% to 3.9%.
The US dollar index fell below 102 to 101.76 at one point. The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in February next year is 16.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by March is 64.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 11.9%.
Today, the scale of use of the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repurchase tool (PPR) fell to US$769.34 billion, from US$837.03 billion the previous day. About US$76 billion flowed into the "risk market". When interest rates are cut next year, the PPR is expected to fall to 0, and funds are turning and leaving the Federal Reserve.
Affected by the potential decline in interest rates, the yields on U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds both fell from above 5% at the end of October to around 4%, with the 10-year yield falling below 4% to 3.9%.
Interest rate futures price in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points in 2024, a total of six times. The European Central Bank is betting on a 154 basis point rate cut. The taps of the two major central banks are open at the same time, injecting liquidity into the market next year.
Encrypted ecological news
The US dollar stablecoin PYUSD launched by payment giant PayPal has currently issued 217.3 million coins, 4,529 on-chain addresses, and 21,769 on-chain transactions.
Sotheby’s first auction of “Inscription,” created using the BTC blockchain’s Ordinals protocol, sold for approximately $450,000, five times its high estimate.
Trend-following and niche hedge funds that trade cryptocurrencies and insurance-related assets attracted the majority of new investor money in the first three quarters of 2023, with net cash inflows reaching $13.1 billion, Preqin Global reported.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has published a consultation paper proposing changes to standards that would allow stablecoins to be considered less risky than unbacked cryptocurrencies.
In its first cryptocurrency accounting rules, the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board said cryptocurrency companies and any other companies that hold BTC or ETH must record their cryptocurrency holdings at fair value to capture highs and lows, with changes in fair value to be included in net income.
Former PayPal president David Marcus said the U.S.’s new fair value accounting rules for cryptocurrencies “are a big deal,” removing a major barrier for companies to hold BTC on their balance sheets.
Canaan Creative completed its first round of preferred stock financing of US$125 million, raising US$25 million.
JPMorgan reports that by 2024, ETH could outperform BTC and other cryptocurrencies, regaining market share in the crypto ecosystem.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Global Derivatives Status
Distribution of chips of different sizes on the chain
(Figure below shows the global derivatives situation)
Judging from the initial derivatives data of the entire market, the market was unstable and turned to short squeeze, making the market safe.
Then from safe to unsafe and then back to safe.
It has now fallen from a safe situation to an unstable one.
Wandering near the edge of danger and in non-dangerous areas.
It is recommended that some strategies be made more conservative at this time.
(The following figure shows the distribution of chips of different sizes on the chain)
You can pay attention to the two most densely populated chip positions where whales hold the largest positions;
As for the price, it is between 48,000 and 49,000.
There are approximately 600,000 chips in total, of which the vast majority of addresses are characterized by holding 100,000 super whale addresses.
There may be some pressure at this price because there are some important participants and there may be a risk of releasing chips.
Below this price is between 33,500 and 35,000.
It is also one of the costs of building positions for super whales. Maybe at this price, they prefer to sell, which will also lead to stronger price resilience in the market near this price.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Purchasing power difference
Whale accumulation coefficient
Overall profit percentage distribution
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The overall on-chain sentiment has declined to a certain extent, and the overall trading enthusiasm may need to be repaired in the near future.
Judging from past situations, the market will only accumulate trends again when there is a turning point in online sentiment.
Judging from the current situation, the overall situation may be in a stage of adjustment and repair, and it is not advisable to take overly radical actions.
(Purchasing power difference in the figure below)
The overall purchasing power differential is decreasing.
This may indicate that the sentiment of funds has also declined slightly. The overall magnitude is not large, but combined with recent conditions, it may be one of the larger reasons.
(The following figure shows the accumulation coefficient of giant whales)
The whale accumulation coefficient has continued to be in a very high enthusiasm state recently, and there is no sign of a temporary decline.
It is possible that large-scale participants still maintain a high level of enthusiasm, and the performance of the market is still determined by their participation.
Of course, they are just one of the participants.
In situations with more in-depth interactions, a more cautious attitude may still be needed.
(The figure below shows the overall profit percentage distribution)
The distribution of overall profit percentages shows the market profit ratio with higher precision.
When the overall profit ratio of BTC exceeds 85%, the market will usually face greater profit pressure in a state of over-profitability.
At this time, only if there is an injection of short-term liquidity can the market's profits be sustained.
There are signs of injection of short-term liquidity (green line), but its internal performance still needs to be observed.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area and the derivatives risk is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Consistent with last week's expectations, there has been no sustained large-scale long squeeze in the short term. From the perspective of risk factor, this week's risk factor has reached the neutral zone, which is basically consistent with last week's expectations, and is more inclined to a small correction in derivative liquidation.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options volume and the proportion of put options have increased significantly this week, and put protection expectations are very high.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
The trading volume and activity level of the derivatives market were low in the past week, and the current trading volume of derivatives has returned to a low level. It may be the time for a change in the market again.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
There has not been much change in option implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: FOMO
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The current short-term holder cost has reached 34K. Last week’s small pullback led to the selling of some losing chips. This week, we will still focus on the transfer of losing chips.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
Both new and active addresses fell back to low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: overall medium inflow accumulation, medium selling pressure.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The big pie as a whole is in a state of accumulating large inflows, and currently only a small part of the inflows has been digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The second cake is in a state of small inflow.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has lost slightly compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has lost slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
The purchasing power of the Americas remained the same as last week, but the purchasing power of Asia and Europe has been lost more, and the purchasing power of Asia has almost been lost. In terms of purchasing power, the purchasing power of the Americas is the main force in the ETF's approval expectations.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
The net position of USDT exchanges is in a state of small outflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 40,000; there is a willingness to sell at 44,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 38,000 and 40,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 44000, 45000, 46000 and 48000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 38,000, 40,000, and 41,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 43,000, 44,000 and 48,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 36,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 45,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The Federal Reserve has confirmed its shift, and Powell will create a dovish atmosphere for next year to avoid an economic recession. Interest rate cuts are a foregone conclusion, and a bull market trend is gradually taking shape.
The next quarter may see the start of a chip exchange phase.
According to public information, there are about 13 large asset management giants targeting crypto ETFs next year.
Money market funds in the United States have accumulated 6 trillion U.S. dollars. When the market turns, money market funds are the first to take action.
On-chain long-term insights:
Looking at the derivatives in the entire market, they have fallen from safe to unsafe conditions;
Between 48,000 and 49,000, there are chips held by super whales;
Between 35,000 and 33,500, there are also super whales building positions.
Market setting:
Within a certain period of time, such as half a quarter or a quarter, the strategy can be shifted to a relatively conservative one.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
On-chain sentiment enters a repair state;
The purchasing power within the exchange has weakened slightly;
The recent accumulation of whales is still high;
The overall profit is at a relatively high level, but there is short-term liquidity injection.
Market setting:
Arrange and repair.
In the near term, performance may tend toward slow repair and adjustment.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: FOMO-oriented.
The overall net positions of exchanges showed an overall medium inflow accumulation and moderate selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has been lost slightly compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has been lost slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 40,000, and a willingness to sell at the price of 44,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 36,000-38,000 in the short term is 80%; the probability that it will not rise below 45,000-47,000 in the short term is 57%.
Market setting:
The expectations for this week are basically the same as last week. The market will face a small pressure test in the short term, but there is no expectation of a large downward fluctuation, and it is more inclined to the liquidation of derivatives. It is not bearish at present, and even if there is a large amount of long squeeze, it is still an opportunity in the short term.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
