1. Israeli militants discovered a large Hezbollah weapons depot in southern Lebanon. According to Golani militants, when they entered southern Lebanon for the second time this week, they found a large weapons warehouse hidden by Hezbollah in a civilian building. In addition, Israel attacked Qana in southern Lebanon, killing one person and injuring 30 people.

2. Russia turns to North Korea to increase troops: Due to the heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is facing a serious shortage of troops. It is reported that Russia is recruiting North Korean soldiers to join the war. How can North Korea explain this to its big brother, the United States? This question is left for friends to think about!

3. The US economy performed better than other G7 countries, with real GDP in the second quarter up 8.7% from the end of 2019, while Germany's real GDP fell 2.0% year-on-year from 2019, and Japan's GDP fell 2.2%. The Qing economy has been in a multi-year deleveraging process (Figure 1)

4. Historically, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 times, but only three of them resulted in a successful soft landing. A successful soft landing is possible only if the economy is no longer in recession when the Fed raises interest rates. However, in general, raising interest rates will lead to economic slowdown. Usually, interest rates will be lowered during a soft landing to prevent economic recession.

When the Fed raises interest rates, unemployment usually rises, triggering a recession, but a soft landing seems unlikely now. The combination of unemployment and credit conditions can help predict the next direction of the labor market.

When credit tightens, unemployment usually rises a year later, and unemployment could continue to rise until mid-2025, so the chances of a soft landing are quite low.

If unemployment does not spike and credit conditions do not loosen by mid-2025, it would suggest the U.S. has avoided a recession.

5. If the Qing Dynasty stimulates the economy vigorously, it may cause the US #通胀 to soar again. Perhaps the Fed will change its attitude after cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Some spokespersons said that they may even consider suspending interest rate cuts. One of the reasons is the upward economic factor (Figure 2)

6. Over the past 30 years, the purchasing power of the dollar has been cut in half due to inflation, while the S&P 500 has risen 972% after adjusting for inflation.

7. Interestingly, only 8% of respondents to the Bank of America investor survey said that the global economy is most likely to experience a recession in the next 12 months.

8. With the return of global liquidity and the Federal Reserve #降息 (when will the next time be, and how much will it be reduced? Still need to think about, refer to Article 4) and the coming of the political election, it will play a driving role in #BTC☀️ (Figure 3)

9. The number of addresses holding more than 1,000#Bitcoins$BTC has been on an upward trend since December 2023 (Figure 4)

10. Latest news: Amazon will invest more than $500 million to develop small modular nuclear reactors to provide carbon-free energy for data centers and support climate goals