Although the US September CPI data last night exceeded expectations across the board, the degree of excess was limited and lower than the previous value. This shows that US inflation is still moving along the downward channel, but the rate of decline has slowed down. Among them, the previously stubborn housing inflation has finally declined significantly, but transportation services, medical services, etc. remain high. After the data was released, many Fed executives also expressed confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction and are not too worried that the September CPI inflation will be higher than expected. At present, the market's probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November has further increased, and it is expected that it will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but the rate of interest rate cuts next year and the rate cuts in the entire interest rate cut cycle are expected to decrease.
In short, this CPI data will not change the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts in the short term, and the key data in the short term is still the non-agricultural data in October. Personally, I expect that the Fed will basically cut interest rates at a pace of 25 basis points each time in the future. This is also the most common pace in the past. In fact, this way of interest rate cuts is acceptable to the market. A large interest rate cut or a suspension of interest rate cuts requires additional data support.
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