The market has been volatile in the past few days. BTC has rushed to 65,000 and then been suppressed to around 62,000. When will the market start? I personally think it will be in November at the earliest. The reasons are as follows: 👉The strong non-agricultural data in September conveyed to the market the good news that the US economy has no signs of recession. However, some people believe that such data is unsustainable and will definitely be revised downward in the future. After all, similar scenarios have occurred before. Therefore, there are still doubts about whether the US economy will "soft land", which leads to the fact that funds dare not leave the market on a large scale. After the non-agricultural data in October comes out, if it is still relatively strong, it can dispel concerns about the economy to a greater extent, and funds will dare to leave the market on a large scale. 👉At the Federal Reserve's monetary interest rate meeting in November, the mainstream market expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut. There are also views that the interest rate cut will be suspended. The discussion on the second interest rate cut will be implemented after the November meeting. If the positive economic data continues to be matched, a 25 basis point interest rate cut will continue to enhance market confidence. 👉The dust has settled on the US election in November. At present, the probability of Trump's victory on Polymarket exceeds Harris'. Uncertainty about the results of the US election is also one of the reasons why funds dare not exit on a large scale. This uncertainty will no longer exist in November.

In summary: When facing market uncertainty, the most prudent strategy for big Wall Street funds is not to exit; interest rate cuts + economic "soft landing" will make people optimistic about the future, thereby increasing risk appetite, and funds will be allocated more to risky assets.

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