1️⃣Current status of L2
Pull down the list of defillama, half of the rankings are L2. The TVL of the two original king-level projects L2, ZKsync and Starknet, dropped rapidly after the coin issuance, and they are not even in the top 20. L2 is the project with the most VCs, because it is the easiest to obtain TVL and user numbers compared to other projects. It is indeed easier for most second-layer projects, just like TON mini-games can be listed on Binance because of the huge number of users. L2 has a huge TVL exchange, which cannot be ignored. However, due to too many competitors in the second layer, the valuation is greatly discounted.
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2️⃣How to value Scroll
Take Scroll (SCR) @Scroll_ZKP, which was recently mined on Binance. Scroll is a Layer 2 solution that natively supports zero-knowledge EVM (zkEVM) and aims to provide an efficient and scalable smart contract platform for Ethereum. Scroll is committed to maximum compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which means that existing Ethereum applications and tools can run on Scroll without modification. We don't need to understand so many concepts, as long as we know that Scroll is a ZK-oriented L2.
From the perspective of project fundamentals, the ZK solution is indeed the first in TVL on the second layer, with a TVL of approximately US$800 million, surpassing Linea, zkSync, Starknet, Taiko and Polygon zkEVM. However, it is difficult to tell whether this is due to the strength of the project itself or the on-chain prosperity brought about by the upcoming TGE, so you need to lower your expectations.
There are two controversial points about Scroll recently. One is that the talents given to the LuMao airdrop are similar to those of Binance launchpool, and the other is that the snapshot of the airdrop was on October 19th.
Why give so much to launchpool? Is this fair? In fact, I think this is the right way to allocate. Binance is the world's largest token trading platform, and the number of its users must be far greater than the players on the chain. The airdrop itself is to attract new users. The false prosperity on the chain cannot be judged, but the players in the exchange are real.
The second is why the airdrop snapshot was taken on October 19. Most L2 projects peaked at the opening, precisely because they put all the rewards in advance. If the chain itself is not easy to use, it will be difficult for users to have the motivation to experience the project on the chain, which will naturally cause huge losses after the token is issued. Scroll used a little cleverness to tell everyone that I have airdropped a brand name when the exposure on the exchange is the highest, and everyone should come and experience it. This can retain more users than issuing all the rewards after the listing. From the perspective of the project, I understand their behavior.
So how should we value Scroll? ZKsync, which is also a ZK solution, currently has an FDV of 2.5 billion, and Blast, which has a similar TVL, currently has an FDV of 900 million US dollars. Scroll is still a long way from ZK in terms of team lineup and technical accumulation. Blast is not listed on Binance, but L2 is a track where the value of competitors is severely diluted, so the valuation has to be discounted. However, Scroll TVL is also 800 million US dollars, so my valuation is between 1 billion and 1.8 billion US dollars, corresponding to a price of 1 to 1.8 dollars.
3️⃣If you missed the Scroll airdrop, launchpool is the best way to participate
The total supply of SCR tokens is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 190 million, and 55 million allocated by Launchpool. According to calculations, 3.954 SCRs can be mined for every 1,000 FDUSD, and 2.5455 SCRs can be mined for every 1 BNB, with a fund yield of 0.73% for BNB and 0.39% for FDUSD. The valuation of SCR is approximately US$1 billion to US$1.8 billion.
So if you feel you have been cheated, you can still participate in launchpool mining on Binance, which has a very high rate of return.
Excavation time: October 9 to October 11, 2024
Don’t forget to deposit BNB and FDUSD into mining
If you don't have a registration
Registration link (20% discount on transaction fees): https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/join?ref=V3ZRJTNH
Invite code: V3ZRJTNH
4️⃣How to develop a good trading strategy after Scroll is launched
The difference between this period and the previous ones is that there is pre-market trading, and the maximum amount that each account can mine is also capped at 2,500 SCR.
Binance's pre-market trading will start at 18:00 (ET) on October 11, 2024, with a maximum individual holding limit of 2,500 SCR. The advantage of pre-market trading is that all chips are mined from launchpool, with no airdrop shares, nor market makers or project shares.
Binance CEO also answered why there is a position limit? Setting a maximum holding limit for users can not only allow the project to reach users widely, but also provide protection measures. In this way, even if the banker wants to manipulate the market, the pre-market transaction price will cost a lot, and the pre-market price can better reflect the real transaction demand.
For pre-market transactions, if the price is less than $1, there is arbitrage space and you can buy it. If it is greater than $1.8, it is overvalued and it is recommended to sell it.
