History is always strikingly similar, but it will not simply repeat itself. Review of the Fed's rate hike and rate cut cycles. This time, the Fed must cut interest rates by 50BP to defeat the recession expectations.

So I am still optimistic about the Fed's rate cut this time, and I think the pullback from one day before the rate cut to October 15 is still a good buying opportunity.

Review of the rate hike cycle: The Fed's rate hike cycle that began in 2022 is a rare rate hike cycle in history. It lasted for two years and six months, with a total rate hike of 525 basis points.

The rate cut cycle has begun: It is difficult to find a completely comparable example in history for the current rate cut cycle. Although inflation has returned to the vicinity of the Fed's target, it may be an adjustment rate cut, but the job market has shown signs of weakening, which is noteworthy in history.

Analysis of previous historical rate cut cycles:
2019 rate cut: It started in a slightly weaker economic environment, faced the risk of trade friction, and was affected by political pressure. At that time, Fed Chairman Powell was under pressure from Trump when making decisions. Growth slowed after the rate cut but did not fall into recession. U.S. stocks hit a new high after a brief decline of more than half a month after the rate cut.
2007 rate cut: It started at a time when credit risk events were frequent, which is different from the current situation. After the rate cut began, the real estate bubble burst, and the subprime mortgage crisis plunged the United States into recession.
1995 rate cut: At that time, inflation fell from a high level and the unemployment rate curve was flat, which is somewhat similar to the current situation. This time the economy had a soft landing and the stock market performed well.

FOMC meeting analysis: There are differences within the Fed on the extent of the rate cut. The content of the FOMC meeting should be divided into three parts: the extent of the rate cut, the 24-year dot plot, the 25-year unemployment rate forecast" and the "press conference", and it should be centered around "Does the Fed think the economy has problems?" If the Fed wants to cut interest rates by 50BP, it must defeat the recession expectations.

#美联储利率决议公布在即

Why do I feel a little bit of despair about the industry? It’s not that I think memes are useless. I have always agreed that memes are very good tools for attracting new users and can bring in a lot of new people. I don’t reject making money with memes. I just feel disgusted with this trend in the currency circle. I also feel unfortunate for users who only play on exchanges. There is basically no opportunity to make money. The only profit model of all projects is to sell coins to you.

Some people say that lowercase Neiro represents the interests of retail investors, and uppercase Neiro is a dick coin with 80% control by the Yinmao Group. But what I want to say is that the total number of addresses of these memes is only 10,000, and the liquidity pool is 5 million US dollars. This is after the rise. Why can these more than 10,000 people represent retail investors and support a market value of 160 million.

Most of the money from memes is also earned by a small number of conspiracy groups, which has nothing to do with retail investors. What is completed by listing on the exchange is the wealth transfer between conspiracy groups and retail investors. If the conspiracy group is not listed on the exchange, such a large volume cannot be sold at all. Now it is a complete negative-sum game

So can't these memes be played on the chain by themselves? Those who want to play can go to the chain by themselves. Why must they go to the exchange? Meme and VC are the same, and all profits come from retail investors participating in the secondary market.

The users of the exchange were first cut by the profiteers, then by the VC coins, and now they are cut by the memes of the conspiracy group. It's really miserable. If this continues, users will be lost, funds will be lost, and crypto and web3 will no longer exist.

The true portrait of retail investors speculating in cryptocurrencies in this round of exchanges is
1. Tokens with almost zero cost that were airdropped by Luzi with a valuation of tens of billions were cut
2. Value coins that were taken by VCs during the copycat season were cut
3. Zoos bought a bunch of dogs, frogs, and cats during the meme season and made a profit first and then lost money and were cut
4. Value coins and memes are not taking each other, and ETH is listed on ETFs. It should be okay, but V dogs cut it again
5. TON games became popular, and tens of millions of non-circle users made a little money, but they took the spot after seeing the market pull, and were cut again.

No matter how rich the leeks are, they can't stand you cutting them like this. In short, if you don't take the market, you won't lose money...
$BTC

Three memes came up at once, and I feel desperate about the industry again. Can't these memes let them play on the chain themselves?

Most of the money of memes is also earned by the conspiracy group, which has nothing to do with retail investors. Listing only completes the wealth transfer between the conspiracy group and retail investors. If it is not listed, the conspiracy group will not be able to sell such a large amount of goods. Now it is a complete negative-sum game.

All the money is earned by them, which is not beneficial to the industry at all. It's really infuriating.

First, they were cut by the hair-pulling, then by the VC coin, and now they are cut by the meme of the conspiracy group. It's really miserable.

Always believe that BTC can outperform ETH. It is really expensive to understand this sentence.

It is hard to imagine a scenario where the market will continue to rise in fomc, and even if it looks like it is going to plummet, it will pull up. At this time, you have to pay attention.
$BTC

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I sold most of my ETH in the past month and bought BNB, Sui, and BTC. All of them have greatly outperformed ETH. After the swap, I am not so anxious anymore. It is not difficult to outperform ETH. I was always afraid that there would be no better targets to swap or that ETH would skyrocket immediately after the swap. Now I have given up hope. If there is no hope, there will be no disappointment.

Alpaca's garbage ETH, stupid V dog. I wasted so much time. I have never lost so much when buying other altcoins$BTC

Two scenarios of the Fed's rate cut

Rate cut of 25: Not as expected, fall!

Rate cut of 50: Exceeding expectations, rise!

Rate cut of 25: Soft landing, rise!

Rate cut of 50: Premonition of hard landing, fall!

Rate cut of 25: In the morning, I felt that it was not as expected, fall! In the afternoon, I thought it was a soft landing, rise! At the end of the trading day, I was afraid of being attacked by others, so I took the initiative, fall!

Rate cut of 50: In the morning, I felt that it was beyond expectations, rise! In the afternoon, I thought it seemed to imply the risk of hard landing, fall! At the end of the trading day, others were panicking and I was greedy, rise!

#美联储何时降息？

A friend who trades in US stocks sent me this picture to cheer me up. He is a die-hard bull.

25% interest rate cut: soft landing, rise!

50% interest rate cut: beyond expectations, rise!

I asked if he could bring the cryptocurrency market along when the market rises, and he was silent.

The first big bomb of AI landing, pornography is the first productivity. OnlyFans, a 42-person company, has an annual revenue of 6.6 billion US dollars, surpassing all AI startups in Silicon Valley!

For comparison, the world's hottest AI unicorn OpenAI has an annual revenue of 3.4 billion US dollars, and the world's largest porn site (PornHub) has only half of OnlyFans's revenue.

Sister Doll once earned 2.36 million US dollars a month on OnlyFans, which is more than 16 million yuan in RMB.

The rise of Sui, the market rebellious child
In my community, I have always called it a rebellious child. Why is it called $Sui the rebellious child? Because it always sends good news to pull the market when the market is falling, and acts as a rebellious child to gain attention from the market. Sui is also the hardest worker in the new public chain. Its TVL has exceeded OP, and it ranks in the top 10, not far from Polygon.

Review of recent good news
1. Binance launched Sui's coin-based contract
2. Suiplay0x1 game console pre-sale
3. Grayscale officially launched Sui Trust Fund
4. TVL entered the top 10 and is not far from the top
5. AUSD stablecoin launched Sui

Compared with ARB on the second layer, Sui's original price was only half of ARB, and now ARB is only $0.5, which is only half of Sui's price, and the circulation and total volume of the two are similar. There are several reasons

1. Blame VC: The cost of investment institutions is too low. For them, even if it falls to $0.1, they can still make money

2. Blame the swindlers and rat traders: There is no low cost for rat traders and swindlers without airdrops

3. Blame V-dogs: ETH is not good, and the second layer is not much better

4. Blame the trend-following VC: The technical barriers of the second layer are not large. VC quickly set up dozens of public chains with similar differences. L2 has serious inflation and value dilution

Sui's chip structure is relatively healthy. There is no selling pressure from swindlers and rat traders. The cost of IDO is mostly $0.1. In addition, there is really no strong one in the new public chain. It is a unique narrative, unlike L2, which can be copied by other projects. There is a shadow of the next Sol.

However, Sui still has large institutional unlocking at the beginning of each month, which is an unfavorable factor. The current pressure is $1.2, which is the high point of the rebound in June. With the rebound of BTC and the development of Sui ecology, it will be faster and stronger than most cottage industries. It is worth looking forward to. I put the stop loss at $0.95 to avoid a sharp retracement after the interest rate cut.

#SUI

If the market continues to improve, I can upgrade from a trader to an investor. If the market gets worse, I will continue to work as a deliveryman.

After so many days of rising prices, the fees are still negative. Do you think the short sellers will be in trouble?

Expectations of Fed rate cuts trigger market volatility: There are rumors in the market that the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points, not just the 25 basis points that were generally expected before. Now the odds of a 25BP cut and a 50BP cut are evenly split.

1. Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," published an article discussing the possibility of a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut, indicating that a 50 basis point cut is still within the Fed's consideration.

2. Financial Times: Following closely, the Financial Times also published a similar article, citing former Fed officials and discussing the reasons for the two rate cuts.

3. Views of former Fed officials: Dudley, former New York Fed president, said there are good reasons for a 50 basis point cut.

It is not enough to focus on the magnitude of the first rate cut at present, and a deeper understanding of the Fed's policy trends is needed. The upcoming rate cut cycle may be very different from previous rate hike cycles, and future market changes may exceed expectations.

The market is currently highly uncertain about the Fed's final decision. It is expected that more information may be disclosed through the media before the Fed meeting next Wednesday.

If the Fed decides to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, more information will be conveyed through the media to reduce market panic; if it decides to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, less information may be disclosed to avoid market disappointment.

Let the bull market come even harder, I don't feel it at all

The seven deadly sins of Ethereum are:
Greed - Ethereum Foundation frequently dumps stocks
Arrogance - Ethereum development route is "determined" and ignores the vital forces of ecological development
Jealousy - Ethereum Foundation researchers "restake" themselves
Anger - Ethereum Foundation transparency is frequently questioned
Laziness - Ethereum Foundation cannot provide a coherent roadmap and leadership for the ecosystem
Gluttony - Ethereum ecosystem throughput limit has not yet reached the top
Lust - founder Vitalik is accused of being obsessed with love and not caring about his career
In summary, the failure of the bull market to rise is the biggest sin of ETH