The market's attention and discussion have all shifted to A-shares.#BTChas been neglected for three days. Judging from the daily K-line, since the closing on the 7th, the amplitude has been getting smaller day by day.
At present, the BTC price is still running at the lower track of the daily/weekly line, and the intraday amplitude remains between 62,000-63,000.
This range is below the daily MA7 support and above the daily 63,000 key resistance. The market's intraday volatility is already the lowest this year. The current intraday volatility reminds me of the bear bottom stage in the middle of last year. The intraday volatility of 300-800 points is already considered active.
However, the current market loss of activity is only due to a temporary lack of guidance. Multiple factors have led to a strong game between bulls and bears here, and a breakthrough still requires external stimulation.
Support and Resistance
Support: 62,000 daily MA7 support, 61,550 daily MA120 and 60,800 daily MA50 below can all serve as buffer support, the key support is at 60,000 daily.
Resistance: 63,000 daily key resistance, 63,550 MA200 resistance,
RSI: The index fell back to 51 and continued to remain neutral.
CEM: The BTC futures index maintains a positive premium of less than 100 points with the spot price, and the bullish force in the futures market is weak.
Notice:
The current range support comes from the daily MA7 position, and the top resistance comes from the daily midline resistance. The top resistance has not continued to move up, and the bottom MA7 support continues to move up. The narrow range of fluctuations during this period has gradually shrunk and may be less than 1,000 points in the early morning.
The amplitude range shrinks. As price fluctuations are limited, either low volatility fluctuations continue or a breakthrough/breakdown occurs.
According to the current timeline, the best breakthrough point is tomorrow night’s CPI data. However, the current amplitude range is too small, and it is difficult to imagine whether prices can be maintained within the range before tomorrow’s CPI.
Summarize:
Tomorrow's CPI data, like last week's employment data, is the only breakthrough point every week. However, the CPI data is obviously not as important as the employment data. If this week's CPI data cannot help prices break through and stabilize and return to the upper track of the daily line, that is, above 63,550, bullish sentiment will inevitably continue to be frustrated. The possibility of prices continuing to fall back will be relatively high.
Objectively speaking, BTC's trend in the past two weeks has been too weak. Without external stimulation, the market has basically been oscillating in a small range. This also shows that market traders are in a confused state at this stage. If this state continues, the confidence of bulls will inevitably be greatly damaged.
To paraphrase many friends, the ups and downs are not painful, which is the most frustrating stage. At present, let me see that this is the sequelae of the inadequate correction before the forced stimulus to pull up last week.
Moreover, a few days ago this week, BTC began to decouple from the US stock market, which made the market lose its reference "anchor" again, which was quite troublesome.
There is no solution at the moment, and waiting is the best way. There are two opportunities, either a technical breakthrough/breakdown in the early morning or tomorrow day, or CPI stimulus to form a short-term small trend tomorrow night.
