Market Analysis 10.6
Good afternoon, brothers. The National Day holiday has ushered in a peak of return trips.
It is still nice to work and trade cryptocurrencies.
Recently, we should pay attention to these two anomalies.
(1) Abnormal reaction to non-farm payrolls.
Although the non-farm payrolls are negative, the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November.
But the cryptocurrency market did not fall sharply. BTC rebounded from 60,000 to $62,000.
(2) Abnormal on-chain data.
This round of conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp drop.
But on-chain data shows that BTC has flowed out of the exchange.
From October 3 to today, October 6, more than 8,000 BTC have flowed out.
This week, pay attention to two events.
(1) Israel may continue to make trouble.
Yesterday, Israel sent away the successor of Hezbollah in Lebanon again.
A retaliatory attack on Iran's oil facilities is being planned.
The Biden administration hopes to avoid rising oil prices.
The White House is unlikely to approve of attacks on Iran's oil facilities.
Therefore, the probability of the conflict continuing to escalate is 50-50. If there is no war, it is a positive, and if there is a war, it is a small negative.
(2) CPI will be released at 20:30 on Thursday
Higher than expected, bearish, and only 25 basis points of interest rate cuts will be confirmed in November
Lower than expected, positive, BTC breaks through $65,000
The general trend is bullish
After the conflict between Israel and Iran is resolved, the big funds waiting on the sidelines will enter the market
BTC will still fluctuate upward.
