Market Analysis 10.31
From on-chain data, stablecoins have been in an inflow state from October 24 to 30,
but have not broken through the previous highs of the past two months,
funds have all flowed into BTC, and there has not been a spillover effect into altcoins.
From October 28 to today, over 10,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges.
It seems that BTC is still set to rise, but how much of a pullback will it have?
Whales and ETF large capital costs are at $55,000, and the current price is $72,000, currently profiting 30%.
Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 index has averaged an annual increase of over 12%.
If the BTC price reaches $82,000, they will profit more than 50%,
equivalent to achieving over 5 times the stock market index increase in one year.
It is estimated that they will start to take profits.
So if it rises close to $82,000, BTC may experience a major pullback.
Currently, from on-chain data, BTC is still flowing out, so the risk is not large.
Regarding the U.S. election, this year's U.S. presidential election may be the most closely contested in history. The two candidates are evenly matched, and in seven swing states, polls show their support rates are neck and neck, with all differences within the margin of statistical error, so it is still uncertain who will win or lose.
The small non-farm payroll data released last night recorded an increase of 233,000, the largest increase since July 2023.
Slightly negative, strong employment impacts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, PCE will be announced, and non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow night at 8:30 PM.
If the non-farm payroll data over the next two days does not cause significant negative impacts,
BTC may build momentum and potentially break through $74,000.
