Big news!
See you tonight! The most important global macroeconomic data for the National Day holiday is about to be released...
The following is Wall Street's latest median forecast for various main indicators and key sub-indicators of non-agricultural employment compared with the previous month; as well as JPMorgan Chase's five scenarios for post-non-agricultural market performance:
The seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment population in the United States is expected to increase by 140,000 in September, compared with 142,000 in the previous month;
The unemployment rate in the United States is expected to be 4.2% in September, compared with 4.2% in the previous month;
The employment participation rate in the United States is expected to be 62.7% in September, compared with 62.7% in the previous month;
The average hourly wage in the United States in September will increase by 3.8% year-on-year, compared with 3.8% in the previous month;
The average hourly wage in the United States in September will increase by 0.3% month-on-month, compared with 0.4% in the previous month.
New non-farm payrolls between 140,000 and 160,000: S&P 500 expected to rise 0.75%-1.25%
If the non-farm data falls within this range, it will be in line with the consensus expectations of market participants, while still within the "Goldilocks scenario" set by JPMorgan Chase, that is, the economy continues to grow at a rate that supports corporate earnings expectations without reigniting inflation. Nevertheless, job growth in this range is still not enough to ease investors' concerns about a potential recession.
New non-farm payrolls between 110,000 and 140,000: S&P 500 expected to fall 0.5%-1.5%
If the employment figures fall within this range, it will likely reignite concerns about economic growth and trigger market arguments that the Fed is behind the curve and too slow to respond to the budding recession. In this scenario, defensive assets will perform well and US Treasury yields will fall.
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