This weekend was relatively quiet, so there isn't a lot worth talking about.
1. The fact that the LPR did not fall in September was on Friday, which was not a big surprise. The People's Bank of China is not a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve, so there is no need for interest rates to follow. And usually when the interest rate is lowered, there will be some advance preparations, such as lowering the deposit rate first.
This weekend, there was news about a deposit rate cut. Some city banks cut their deposit rates, but this was not the start of a new round of rate cuts, but the end of the rate cut on July 25. Here is a brief explanation of the different paces of rate cuts for large and small banks. Usually, large banks cut first, followed by small banks.
Those who support interest rate cuts believe that the current stock market decline, house prices falling, the economy sluggish, and consumption are weak, and that interest rate cuts are urgently needed to stimulate the economy. The central bank said, "I know you are anxious, but don't be anxious yet. Anyway, our monetary policy has its own rhythm and will not be easily forced to adjust by the market."
A-shares expressed dissatisfaction with the failure of the interest rate cut on Friday morning, but in the afternoon, the government entered the market and bought back some of the indexes, maintaining the situation. For example, the CSI 300 was pulled up in the last hour:
In addition to the CSI 300, the government has also recently started to continuously buy ETFs in the ChiNext, and the signs are very obvious:
2. The US Biosafety Act was not included in the Senate's Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act. The National Defense Authorization Act is a packaged collection of 93 bills. To use a popular analogy, it is like the last subway at night, which carries 93 passengers and drives away. When the Biosafety Act arrives at the subway station, there is no car left, so it can only call a car to go home. Since this year is an election year, the two parties will be busy competing, and it is likely that no car will be called this year, so the market believes that the Biosafety Act will not play this year.
It is estimated that WuXi AppTec and the CXO sector will be able to jump for a while on Monday, but if you don’t do it this year, there is still next year. You can avoid the first day, but you can’t avoid the fifteenth.
3. The price of Moutai has further fallen. The Dragon Year Moutai has broken its issue price. Scalpers have stopped buying back the stock. The price of bulk Moutai has fallen below 2,300. There is nothing we can do about this. The high-priced products that ordinary people cannot afford have fallen sharply in the past two years. If calculated in proportion, the decline of Moutai is small. The listed company launched a repurchase plan on Friday night to boost market confidence. It plans to repurchase 3-6 billion shares and cancel all of them.
This attitude is very positive, but the amount is indeed limited. 6 billion only accounts for less than 0.4% of the circulating market value. It is hard to say whether it can turn the tide under the current trend. The scale of a single repurchase of US technology stocks is usually 1-2% of the total share capital. According to this calculation, Moutai needs to repurchase 15-30 billion to be considered a real sound.
4. Black Myth's first month sales exceeded 20 million, with total revenue exceeding 6.7 billion. According to agency estimates, the game's annual sales are expected to reach 30-40 million copies. I just looked at the achievement data, and currently 36% of players have completed the first round of clearance, which is already a high ratio in soul-like games, indicating that the players are very motivated.
Today, I was outside the gate of the Little Leiyin Temple where I was about to fight the boss. I found that the plaque inside the temple looked very familiar. There was a horizontal plaque "调御老公" under the main hall. There is only one such plaque in Huayan Temple in China. I happened to take my mother there last year and was deeply impressed.
The husband of the tamer is another name for Tathagata Buddha, similar to what your Brother Mao, Hansenburg, and Miss Ren all call me. This plaque of Huayan Temple was written by a general named Ma Lin in the Ming Dynasty. He was a second-generation military officer and served as a lieutenant general of Datong, equivalent to the commander of a local military region. Later, he commanded the Battle of Sarhu. His two sons died in the battle, and almost all his troops died. He escaped from the pile of dead bodies, but later died in the battle to defend Kaiyuan.
Among all the Chinese temples I have visited, Huayan Temple has one of the most exquisite architecture and distinctive Buddha sculptures. If you have the chance to visit Datong, don’t miss it.
5. Gold price broke through to $2,647, continuing to hit a record high. The Fed's easing progress slightly exceeded expectations. For dollar-denominated investment products, they rose across the board in the past few days, and Bitcoin also rebounded to 63,000. Oh, by the way, Binance boss Zhao Changpeng's 4-month sentence is about to end and he will be released soon. He negotiated with the US government before, paid a $4 billion fine in exchange for a promise of a light sentence, and then took the initiative to surrender from Dubai.
6. Recently, photolithography machines have been quite popular because the overlay accuracy of domestic photolithography machines is less than 8nm. This news has been misunderstood by some people, who think that our photolithography machines can already complete the 8nm process. In fact, these two are not the same thing.
To use a more popular analogy, chips are like laying a lot of pipes on the ground. The 8nm process requires that the diameter of each pipe you make is only 8nm, and the overlay accuracy means that the accuracy error between pipes is less than 8nm. Our domestic equipment now only has a breakthrough in pipe placement accuracy, and we cannot make such thin pipes. Domestic lithography machines are still only at the 28nm level, at least that's what is publicly said.
When it comes to stock price speculation, emotion is the most important thing. No matter which 8nm it is, as long as there is an 8nm, it’s fine.
7. The media has been reporting that Buffett recently sold off Bank of America shares, cashing out more than $8 billion. This logic is quite normal. The profitability of banks will be suppressed during the interest rate cut cycle. It is abnormal that bank stocks have skyrocketed during the interest rate cut cycle like our A-shares. The main reason is that the rescue and group funds have been pushed in in the past six months. Therefore, the experience of the United States cannot be applied to China in many cases. There are too many different factors on both sides.
