Research report: How do various assets perform after the Fed starts to cut interest rates?
Certain rules have emerged in the 7 rounds of interest rate cuts. Before the first interest rate cut, US bonds, gold, etc. usually benefit;
After the first interest rate cut, the risk of price fluctuations of most assets increases in stages. After 2-3 months, US bonds and US stocks may perform positively. Before and after the interest rate cut, the winning rate of US bonds is relatively high.
1. US bonds: The interest rate trend is downward, but in the case of a "soft landing", it may rebound within 1-2 months after the first interest rate cut.
2. US dollar index: There is no absolute correlation between the trend and the interest rate cut, and whether it is a "soft landing".
3. US stocks: The rally may "stalled" before and after the first interest rate cut, but it usually resumes rising 2-3 months after the interest rate cut.
4. Gold: The probability of rising before the interest rate cut is high, but the trend after the interest rate cut is unclear.
5. Crude oil: The probability of falling after the interest rate cut is high, but it is not absolute.
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