1. The Fed #鲍威尔 announced a 50 basis point rate cut, which was an evasive measure made in advance due to concerns about a market recession. However, looking back at the rate cut in 1981, it led to a sharp rise in the third quarter of that year, which truly destroyed the economy. Therefore, we need to observe the market reaction of long-term bonds to Powell's return.

2. Continuing with the first point, the steepening of the yield curve after inversion is a signal of #经济衰退 . Recently released economic data have raised concerns about a recession, such as the#ISMmanufacturing PMI of 47.2, indicating that the economy continues to shrink, and the unemployment rate of 4.2% indicates that the labor market has begun to weaken.

But the market seems to have reduced its concerns about a recession. Combined with the current situation, it may bring greater room for growth before the economy finally enters a recession.

3. The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut are as follows

November 7, 2024: 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%

December 18, 2024: 50 basis points to 4.00-4.25%

January 25, 2025: 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%

March 19, 2025: 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%

May 7, 2025: 25 basis points to 3.25-3.50%

4. As of now, the Qing Dynasty #Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index peaked in February 2021 and has since fallen 45%. At the same time, the #S&P 500 rose 43.7%. Of course, this is temporary data and does not represent future market trends (Figure 1)

5. A debt crisis is unfolding. The US budget deficit reached $380 billion in August, an increase of 66% from August 2023, or $12 billion per day. This is the largest deficit so far (Figure 2)

6. Let's talk about Ethereum #EFT . As of the end of August this year, all $ETH ETF holds a total of 2862403ETH, worth about $7.2 billion, indicating that institutions have a strong interest in $#以太坊ETF通过 ETF (Figure 3)

7. Some analysts say that Bitcoin $BTC may rise to 74K in the next few weeks. What do you think about this? Although institutions no longer have positive factors for shorting Bitcoin, I think a huge driving factor is still needed, such as truly reducing concerns about economic recession and introducing huge liquidity

8. Let's talk about liquidity. From 2019 to now, the global money supply has increased by more than $20 trillion. With the interest rate cuts in the United States, Hong Kong, and China, liquidity is still growing. Of course, the price of Bitcoin has always been positively correlated with M2, which will be discussed later (Figure 4)