Tonight at 2:00 am is a historic moment. The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision, and then Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 pm. In the past two days, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, and the top has directly hit the high point of the fluctuation range. The reason for the strong rebound comes from CME's prediction of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 66%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 34%.

One thing that is certain is that as the interest rate cut cycle starts again and the long-term process of interest rate cuts continues, the liquidity of the market will definitely get better and better. From the perspective of risk control, it is best to temporarily stay away from possible high volatility. If a 25 basis point interest rate cut is announced, it is more in line with market stability considerations, but the increase in liquidity will have almost no effect in the short term. If a 50 basis point cut is announced, liquidity injection can be quickly increased, but the ensuing recession risk will once again sweep the crypto market.

The better logic is that the 25 basis points will be directly implemented, followed by Powell's dovish speech at the press conference at 2:30. In this way, the market will complete this transformation with minimal volatility, and after a short adjustment, a new round of upward momentum will begin. Of course, no matter what, the start of the interest rate cut cycle has become a landmark event for the market to go bullish again. We just need to be prepared to welcome the last drop that may come after liquidity reaches a balance point in the next three months.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 186 million USD, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 15.11 million USD. The macro-economic situation of the big pie is gradually improving, but Ethereum is really the worst. I paid a little attention to the exchange rate of Ethereum in the evening. It has been hitting new lows, and there is no bottom!

Yesterday, Yijie wrote another short essay to respond to short-term market concerns. The reason was that three memes were posted in three days, and the one that triggered public opinion was the debate over the authenticity of neiro. The specific internal situation should be visible to everyone through the self-media in the circle, so I will not go into details. However, for the development of the platform, especially when it has become the leader in the industry, it is meaningless to emphasize that it is just an exchange with sufficient internal system regulations.

Three years ago, the project team was proud of Shang Mou An. Today, three years later, Shang Mou An is the pinnacle of the project. There are indeed objective external factors that lead to this situation, but it is obviously unrealistic to say that there is no influence of internal system or human factors for the continuous collapse of the cottage for a year. The so-called leader should insist on doing the right thing, and the rightness of things is not in the slogan, the market will give us the answer.

The secondary market is too fragmented this year. Apart from exchanges and pure Bitcoin spot players, there are almost no winners. This is obviously a manifestation of the extreme immaturity of the market. In the words of a friend, if there were antitrust laws in the web3 market, An would have been dismembered into multiple entities long ago. It would be difficult for An to lose if it played and refereed in its own stadium!

In terms of operation, we don’t have much time to lie down in the short term. After the market volatility brought about by the short-term interest rate cut has come out of the haze, the certainty of this bull market will finally begin. Block out the noise and wait for the final signal of the cup-throwing!

BTC: Bitcoin strengthened during the holiday. We can see that the technical side of the day has also been concerned. Logically, it has not stabilized after reaching above 60,300 points, but is still in a high range of fluctuations. In the short term, as long as it is above 57,500 points, it is a market that does not look at the position of large-range shorts. There is no obvious signal of a daily reversal. If the data is not affected much, we tend to continue to look at a short-term rebound. If the overnight market can hit the low point of fluctuations, it can be appropriately bought at a low price.

ETH: Ethereum is still linked to Bitcoin. It will be put aside until there is an independent market.

COMP: With a small focus, the daily trend is still there.

The Fear and Greed Index is 45 during the day.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​$BTC #币安上线NEIRO #加密市场反弹 #美联储利率决议公布在即