As the market awaits the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, U.S. stock investors are afraid to act rashly, but Bitcoin has begun to rise significantly. Bitcoin once hit $61,343 last night, hitting its highest price since September, and Ethereum is also approaching $2,400. Wall Street's Bitcoin spot ETF saw massive inflows of $403 million, a trend that continued into the week, with inflows of $12.8 million into the Bitcoin spot ETF on Monday, bringing the ETF's net reserves to $17.3 billion.
The entire network has a liquidation of 134 million US dollars in the past 24 hours
As Bitcoin rises, according to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency contracts liquidated reached $134 million, of which $82.39 million of short orders accounted for the majority, and more than 50,000 people were liquidated. From a technical perspective, the cryptocurrency market value is trading within a general "double bottom" channel pattern, indicating that it may continue to show a bullish price trend.
Mid-Autumn Festival is over, back to the market~
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and Chairman Powell will hold a press conference afterwards!
The market is concerned about whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points!
The current market expectation is that the probability of a 1 basis point rate cut is 35%, and the probability of a 2 basis point rate cut is 65%. However, the rate cut is basically safe and there will be no surprises. At present, people are looking forward to a 50 basis point rate cut... Anyway, make a strategy for both possibilities! A 25 basis point rate cut should have been expected and released by the market, and the market may tend to rise slightly and then fluctuate and fall. I think a 50 basis point rate cut will lead to a big rise, but it is also difficult to rise by more than 12% in one wave.
Some people say that the market is currently trading in a recession? If a 50 basis point rate cut also proves that the fundamentals are not reliable, is there a risk of a collapse in the US stock market? ! I think we should not expect the risk of a sharp drop in the US stock market. 99.9% of people cannot catch such a short-term plunge. It is better to keep enough funds and wait for the bottom like Buffett. Since the big short seller Livermore shorted the US stock market in 1929, in this century-long historical cycle, only the two periods of 1966-1982 and 1999-2009 were relatively tragic. However, they are far from returning to the starting point... "The stock market is a barometer of the economy", yes, it is true... The Federal Reserve has enough means to control it.
As for Bitcoin, look how well it has grown in the long term!
Don’t stare at the 1H15 minute chart every day. Open the big cycle chart more often and your faith will come naturally.
No matter what happens tonight, Bitcoin will rise very well in the long term.
Will there be another copycat bull market in this cycle? When will it come and in what form?
I think the key event that brings about the bull market in altcoins (note, it is altcoins. In theory, Bitcoin is already in a bull market, and its price has increased greatly compared to the beginning of the year) is neither the launch of VC projects with large financing, nor the crazy launch of meme projects by Binance, and don’t expect any so-called mass adoption projects to suddenly appear. In fact, the arrival of the bull market is only related to the enthusiasm of the funds entering the market. If the funds entering the market are greater than the funds leaving the market, the price will rise, otherwise, it will fall. Even the aunties on the street know this. The others are nothing more than finding some reasons for the inflow and outflow of funds to show that the funds are not stupid.
The event that is really worth everyone's attention and waiting is probably Uniswap, which has been unknown in the corner recently. Whether its governance token Uni dividend will be approved by the SEC is related to whether the altcoin bull market will come. Maybe someone has noticed recently that some tokens supported by real project income, such as BNB, PENDLE, AAVE, etc., have performed very well in the past year. This shows that the market will not kill truly high-quality projects after all, and the commercial essence of traditional business practiced for thousands of years is also correct as the truth.
So what about the timing?
It is not easy to change the SEC's policies, at least not before the November election, which means there will be no bull market before November. As for after November, it depends on whether Trump can be elected and whether he can replace the current SEC chairman with someone who likes crypto. Even if Trump is elected, it will take time to pass relevant bills. In other words, in the next three to six months, everyone needs to tighten their belts and hold on. At most, Bitcoin will rise alone to drive up altcoins.
Making money comes from prejudice and poor cognition. If everyone is optimistic, where is the space? So return to the original intention, reject prejudice, and improve cognition. Don't complain about the environment. There are not many opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle.
