1. Elon Musk said: Regulations will never die unless someone is willing to abolish them. Regulations are immortal. Unless someone really destroys them, they will never die. Many times, regulations may be enacted for various legitimate reasons.
2. The US #2-year Treasury yield is falling, indicating that #降息 is coming soon. If recession concerns are reduced, the market may rebound soon. From historical data, before the Fed cuts interest rates, the 2-year Treasury yield tends to fall, which is also what we are seeing now (Figure 1)
3. PCE inflation has been moving in a healthy direction recently. If this trend continues for another three months, the United States may return to pre-COVID-19 inflation levels. We will see this later today. #CPI数据
Unless inflation is unexpectedly high, the Fed will start cutting interest rates this month, but the impact on the market will depend on the speed of the cut, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The analysis is in my previous tweets.
However, as of the time of writing, the market predicts that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 28%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 72%.
4. Cryptocurrency assets outflow of $726 million, the market is in a low mood in the short term amid concerns about economic growth and political uncertainty
5. As of today, Bitcoin #BTC☀️ mining difficulty hits a new record high (Figure 2)
6. Bitcoin has been in a state of decline for nearly 6 months, and short-term#STHholders have been losing money on their holdings, which is the largest $BTC sell-off in this cycle
7. The market is betting on Harris and #特朗普 , each with 49% of the votes, and the current situation is rather awkward (Figure 3)
8. If Bitcoin rebounds and creates a bullish divergence, it will be a great buying opportunity (Figure 4)
