The market was too dull over the weekend. Bitcoin trading volume showed signs of a bear market and shrunk significantly, but we are still confident about the future market. It has bottomed out twice in the short term. Although there is no obvious support at present, from the perspective of the altcoin market, the altcoin did not continue to fall with Bitcoin. Instead, it maintained a sideways adjustment or a slight upward trend.

As I said, as long as Bitcoin hits its second bottom and stabilizes, the altcoin will take off in stages.

Judging from the current market trend, the overall market trend is slightly stronger, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the overall market will be in the range of 53,000-56,000, Ethereum will be in the range of 2,200-2,400, and Sol will be in the range of 125-135.

From a technical perspective, the market is still weak, and this week the focus will be on the release of CPI data and the debates among presidential candidates. These two pieces of news will affect the market trend, and we can only wait and see whether it is bullish or bearish.

This week's major events:

On Tuesday, September 10, Apple held a new product launch event.

Wednesday, September 11, US August CPI, US presidential candidates Harris and Trump debate on ABC News.

On Thursday, September 12, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week will be released, and the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.

On Friday, September 13, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September was released.

There will be a big pullback before and after the interest rate cut, and this pullback is our signal to enter the market.

Why the altcoin market is so bad from different perspectives!

1. On the surface, the reason why altcoins cannot rise or fall is that the speed of new funds entering the cryptocurrency circle cannot keep up with the speed at which market makers and exchanges make money. Most ordinary users have a three-month liquidation period for contracts. After retail investors’ positions are liquidated, their funds are taken away by institutions and exchanges. Retail investors cannot keep up with the speed of attracting new investors.

2. The trading technology of ordinary users is still at the stage of looking at various K-lines and indicators, which is equivalent to the backward technology of the stock era in 1995, while institutions have evolved to order book technology, which is a new technology developed in 2014. It beats the K-line school of 20 years ago, which is equivalent to driving a bomber to fight cavalry. Therefore, in contract trading, ordinary retail investors usually survive for about three months.

3. Regarding the spot market in the cryptocurrency circle, the liquidity is very poor, and institutional traders even directly control the liquidity of certain currencies. The reason for this situation is: CZ was controlled. At that time, the United States revealed that more than 200 market makers were related to CZ. As CZ was controlled, the cohesion of the market makers related to CZ was broken. Without a soul figure like CZ to organize 200 market makers to jointly make the market, the market's "ability to make trouble" was unable to exert its strength.

In simple terms, the original bull market-making institutions were divided because of the CZ incident, and could not gather together to create a hot spot. This led to insufficient market heat, which indirectly led to insufficient new user attraction, and further led to weak liquidity.

4. The approval of ETF has caused new funds that were originally going to enter the cryptocurrency circle to settle in the U.S. stock market.

5. The cryptocurrency circle lacks innovation at the grand narrative level, and at the same time, the encryption track has attracted some developers and traffic from AI.

6. The listing fees of some exchanges are too high. Many project parties and VCs do not actually make any money. Many project parties cannot earn back the listing fees even if they pay to be listed on the exchanges. Retail investors also lose money. In short, those who work in VC institutions said that many VCs have gone bankrupt, especially Chinese VC institutions, which are at a disadvantage in the global competition. High-quality projects cannot be invested in, and second-rate projects are locked up for several years and still fall below the issue price.

In VC's observation, the weakness of the crypto market is mainly due to weakened liquidity and the weakened ability to attract liquidity. To change the status quo, we have to wait until the Federal Reserve releases liquidity before things can get better.

How will the market develop in the future?

It is expected that the interest rate will be cut on the 19th, and there are still 10 days left. Everyone can no longer hold on. I see that many people’s funds have been reduced to zero. I advise everyone who does not have much funds to stop struggling, especially those who have no source of funds. Do not borrow money, it is a bottomless pit.

Recently, a super whale has emerged and has been trading 500 bitcoins each time since August 26th. As of September 7th, it has bought 12,500 bitcoins. I roughly calculated that the average price is 58,000, and a total of 12,500 bitcoins require 725 million US dollars. The big players are all buying at the bottom. I have been monitoring the other data. The holdings of the big players are all inflows, and the outflows are now continuing from ETFs and retail investors. Before the interest rate cut, there is a high probability that a shot will be taken towards the bottom of the range of 48,000 points. The overall situation of the market is still in a weak period of washing.

This year's trend is basically a replica of last year's. It peaked in March and then fell all the way without a break. It fell four days a week, and fell by a few points every day. It fell for several months. Last year, it fell for six months before rebounding. This year has also been falling for six months. The interest rate cut in September is nominally good news, but the capital market generally treats it as a good news. Now the U.S. stock market is actually reacting to the interest rate cut in advance and is experiencing a downward correction.

Personally, I previously thought that the adjustment of the U.S. stock market was a small-scale adjustment (in my system, the small-scale adjustment is within 10-15%, and the Nasdaq may be slightly larger than the S&P) but now it seems that the adjustment has not yet reached the right level.

Moreover, even if we refer to the adjustment time before and after the first interest rate cut during the weak landing periods in 2019 and 1995 (a little more than two months in 2019 and more than three months in 1995), the adjustment time of the US stock market from the high point in mid-July to now is only one and a half months.

Not to mention, the election situation this year is very tense, and it is reasonable for funds to avoid risks and not enter the market in a big way before the situation becomes clear.

The distance will be finally adjusted, and there will probably be a lot of fluctuations in the meantime. After all, the market expects a recession, but it cannot be confirmed now. It is normal for the expectation to be dispelled again later.

It is also easy to adjust interest rates before and after a cut according to the election situation.