After observing the market trends in August and the current September, it is found that there is basically a drop at the beginning of the month and then a rise in the middle of the month.
The market fluctuated back and forth, and the speculation of expected economic recession failed twice. The main trend was that the price came back but the position was gone.
The improvement in the market in the last two days is the result of the advance speculation of the interest rate cut next week. Therefore, after the rebound in the past two days and the expected interest rate cut next week, these funds will most likely start dumping the market, so there is still a high probability of a decline.
But then again, BTC has been falling for nearly half a year, and it seems logical that it will rise in October, so there should be a good market in October.
Next, pay attention to a few events:
1. September 18 meeting: whether to cut interest rates
2. On September 29, will CZ come out?
These are some important events
The market has been very good recently. As for the altcoins, the strong will always be strong. When Bitcoin returns to 75,000, many altcoins may not be able to return to their previous highs, but some will continue to be strong.
Ethereum is still a weak currency, don’t touch it, wait until the exchange rate stabilizes before considering it. Don’t think about buying it for a rise.
Will BTC surge before the rate cut?
The current price must be the result of such a game. First, it should make those who are waiting feel that it is a little high but not too high, so they can still buy. Second, it should make those who hold it feel that it is a little low but not too low, so they can't sell it! Does the current price of 60,000 meet this result?
I think the price is around 64,000! That is, around the 200-day moving average.
6.4w is the price dividing the crypto bull and bear markets. Before the interest rate cut, the price of BTC will inevitably approach this price infinitely. After all, everyone can see that in the current crypto market, an overall upward trend is taking shape, but many people are still holding back and watching. In this case, it is impossible for the market to let you pick up cheap chips easily.
Therefore, I believe that the last wave of gains before the rate cut will start at any time. Investors who followed the BTC price from around 52,000 yuan can appropriately take profits in this wave of gains. After all, “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
When will BTC’s market share peak? When will the alt season come?
BTC.D will peak in the fourth quarter of this year. The peak of the previous cycle was after the second interest rate cut, which was also the turning point for the Fed to shift from balance sheet reduction to expansion.
Logically, it is easy to understand that BTC is to the cryptocurrency world as the U.S. dollar is to foreign exchange. During the QT period, funds flowed into BTC, and during the QE period, funds flowed to altcoins in pursuit of higher risk returns.
According to the logic of the cycle, the BTC ecological sector is the focus of attention!
1. In the minds of users, the Bitcoin ecosystem is closely linked to BTC. When the BTC market comes, the Bitcoin ecosystem will definitely rise.
2. It is similar to the previous round of Defi. After experiencing the summer market in 2020, Defi experienced a wash-out and then experienced another big market in 2021.
3. The market capitalization is generally very low. The leading ordi and sats only have 600 million US dollars and are in full circulation. In comparison, the arb that everyone has been criticizing has a circulation market capitalization of 1.8 billion US dollars and FDV of 5.3 billion. OP has a circulation of 1.8 billion US dollars and FDV of 6.6 billion US dollars. And the leading inscriptions are also far lower than MEME coins, with pepe at 3.2 billion and wif at 1.8 billion US dollars.
4. Inscriptions are 100% in circulation. The market is now resistant to the continuously released coins. At least in the initial stage of the market, funds prefer inscriptions like MeMe. Only when the market reaches a certain stage and funds begin to overflow from the sector, other coins will start to have some market trends. However, it can be boldly predicted here that many coins with low circulation and high fdv will not be able to return to their highs even if a big bull market comes.
5. The inscription section also meets one of the plus points of the section: it can issue massive assets, produce beneficial effects, and constantly create new topics.
What are the symbols in the BTC ecosystem that are worth paying attention to?
In terms of tokens, the leaders of the track, ordi and sats, are competing with each other. As a project listed on Binance, its liquidity can support large funds.
It is undoubtedly a target that must be configured.
Pizza: As one of the symbols of BTC, pizza is also strongly supported by the Unisat wallet.
Rats is also a highly popular item.
The above four coins all show signs of capital accumulation. Logically, ordi and sats are more certain. pizza and rats may have a higher critical hit rate.
Among all the second-layer Bitcoins, Merlin and Bouncebit are listed online. Their market capitalizations are not high, with a circulation of about 100 million US dollars. As Binance supports and has just launched, there are still many second-layer Bitcoins that have not been issued, so we will talk about it when they are listed.
CKB is a special existence. Its unique UXTO architecture makes it naturally different from other projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem. It has a market value of 600 million US dollars and is almost fully circulated. It is neither cheap nor expensive. Then, CKB, which was just hyped in April, has a large number of locked-in shares on the top, which requires time to consume or there will be a big benefit effect. Therefore, it is worth paying close attention to.
