September is the weakest month for Bitcoin, and all of these years from 2017 to 2022 have closed with a fall in price, and of course the same is true for the US stock market. From a seasonal performance perspective, the fourth quarter is usually a period of better market performance. The accumulation phase of Bitcoin ended at the end of the month, and the market is currently waiting for the arrival of the fourth quarter. Until then, many people will choose to wait and see.
The return of new retail investors is considered to be the key force driving the next bull market, but these potential buyers are still on the sidelines and have not yet entered the market in a big way. This refers to those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The spot ETF bull market in the first half looks similar to the small bull market in 2019. Obviously, we will see a subsequent second wave of bull market. And those who have held Bitcoin for more than 7 years have not seen signs of selling yet. These ultra-long-term Bitcoin players, I believe, will act in 2025.
Previously, we saw that short-term Bitcoin holders sold more than 640,000 Bitcoins since mid-August. Long-term holders or Bitcoin whales in the market continue to see an accumulation trend, indicating that they are optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. Because the demand of retail investors has not yet recovered, the price is still hovering at a low level, and even showing a slight downward trend.
In the current environment, the price of Bitcoin must break through $70,000 to effectively attract the strong return of individual investors.
