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In the recent market analysis, I have always emphasized that the 4h level correction of Bitcoin must at least fall to around 55,000 or below. Although the recent process is relatively slow, it has finally moved in the direction we expected. The current lowest is 55,606. We still need to observe in the short term. There may be another wave of decline. However, the structure of the 4h level decline is almost complete, and there is a probability that the short-term 4h level decline will end this week.
We cannot be overly bearish here for the time being, in order to prevent the bulls from counterattacking to above 63,000 after the second buy is issued at the 4h level.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.
1H：
The overall 4h level correction, falling from 65,000 to around 55,000, is an aAb trend. The structure is in line with our previous expectations. As early as in the article on August 30, we made an accurate prediction of the market structure.
The expected structure is exactly the same as the current structure. The current focus is to see whether the 1h level decline of this central axis has ended. From a short-term structural point of view, it may go down further, so we need to wait and see.
Of course, if Bitcoin rebounds and breaks through 57,900 again, it means that Bitcoin has been pulled back into the previous 1h center, eliminating the three sells, which means the exhaustion of short momentum, then it is very likely to end the 4h level correction and start a new 4h level rebound.
Therefore, if it breaks through 57,900 again, we can preliminarily judge that Bitcoin may start a new 4h level rebound. The first target of the rebound is around 63,000, and the second target is to break through 65,000 again.
Therefore, it is no longer appropriate to be overly bearish in the short term, but to be prepared to go long at any time to welcome the rebound.
15M：
At the 15-minute level, the short-term cannot directly confirm the end of the 1h level decline. According to the decline structure, there may be another wave of decline to 55,000 or 52,000-55,000. Or in the short term, a 15-minute level center is consolidated in the 56,000-57,100 range, and then another wave of decline is extended downward.
If it breaks through 57,500 again, we need to consider the possibility that the pullback will end directly.
ETH
The decline of Ethereum at the 4h level also continues to extend downward by building a center. Here, the 1h center has an obvious tendency to diverge. If Ethereum rebounds in the short term and breaks through 2430 again, it is possible to directly end the 4h level decline and start a new 4h level rebound.
We still need to observe the details. If it remains below 2430, there will be another short-term decline to around 2300 or 2250.
It is worth noting that a week ago, we estimated that Ethereum’s 4h level correction would at least fall back to around 2300. It has now reached the basic target, and the next correction may end at any time. It may fall again in the short term, or it may not fall much and rebound directly.
Trend Direction
Weekly level: Downward direction, extension of weekly decline, theoretically around 49,000, the limit is 45,000~48,000, whether it is over or not still needs to be observed
Daily level: The direction is upward. The probability of Bitcoin rebounding directly from around 49,000 on the daily level has increased. If it does not fall below 49,000 this week, it is possible to rebound again to the 65,000~70,000 range in September.
4-hour level: The direction is downward. The decline at the 4h level has entered the end and may end at any time. Pay attention to the strength of the short-term rebound.
1-hour level: The direction is downward. Continue to observe whether the fifth 1h-level decline can go down further.
15-minute level: Direction downward, see if you can go to the 55,000-53,000 area
