Daily Share

In a blink of an eye, it is already mid-September. After hitting 73777 in mid-March this year, Bitcoin has been fluctuating downward. The overall ups and downs have been quite violent, with more than 8 ups and downs, and the average fluctuation range is around 17%~32%. Basically, it beats those comrades who have more than 3 times the contract and do not set a stop loss. Regardless of whether they are long or short, most people cannot make stable money.

We don’t know how long the overall market will continue to fluctuate. What I personally believe is that once the entire oscillation and correction process of Bitcoin is over, there will inevitably be a wave of increases to break through 74,000. The ultimate goal should be 90,000 or 100,000+.

But the most difficult part is the process. There are countless ways for the dog dealer to wash you out or wash away your funds before reaching the final rising target, and then pull the market up. Therefore, in fact, no matter when, protecting the existing funds at the first time is the top priority. Protecting the principal does not mean that we cannot tolerate a little loss, but we must protect the majority of the principal. In this way, we have the capital to cope with the future rising market.

 

BTC mid- to long-term

Weekly:

At the weekly level, there is not much evidence to show that 49,000 is the weekly bottom, so the weekly line may not be completed, and there is a high probability that it will fall back to the 44,000-48,000 range in the future. Unless Bitcoin breaks through 70,000 again, the weekly decline may end. However, it is worth noting that once this weekly decline is completed, there will be a third weekly rise to above 74,000 to set a new historical high.

Daily Line:

At the daily level, there is a probability of a daily rebound from 49,000 to 65,000-70,000. However, judging from the current trend, there is no absolute certainty. In the short term, I tend to believe that the price will not fall below 49,000 for the time being. After it rises to 65,000-70,000, the next daily decline is likely to fall below 49,000 again.

It is still uncertain how the daily line will move, so there is no use thinking too much. Our operation level is below the daily line level, so we will not be affected too much. However, before the upward trend comes, it is better to forget about daily line level operations, as it is easy to go on a roller coaster ride repeatedly.

 

4H：

At the 4h level, the third rise of the yellow arrow in the above figure is currently running, that is, the third 4h level rise. This rise has not yet ended. It is expected to have the opportunity to rush to the 60500~62000 range. After that, there should be another 4h level decline. It depends on whether the next 4h level decline will fall below 52550 again. If it falls below, it will test the support of 49000 again (it may or may not be broken). If the next 4h level decline does not break 52550, then the subsequent 4h level is expected to rebound from the central departure segment to the 65000~70000 range.

The two 4h level trends indicated by blue arrows in the above figure are the trends that individuals hope or expect, but we also need to be prepared for the possibility that the next 4h level decline will fall below 52550 again.

 

BTC short term

Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.

1H：

At the 1h level, it is possible that there has been a 1h level correction in the short term. It is currently constrained by the pressure near 58,500. Unless it breaks through it again, it is possible to reach the 59,000-60,000 range. At present, it is possible that the big cake will continue to have a 1h level correction and step back to around 56,000 to consolidate a 1h level center, and then rush up to the 60,500-62,000 range. Therefore, the current strategy is to continue to go long if there is a correction.

15M：

At the 15-minute level, if it falls below 57,400 in the short term, we will see a 1h level pullback to around 56,000. If it does not fall below, we need to pay attention to the possibility of continuing to build a 15-minute level center and rushing above 58,500 again.

 

ETH

Ethereum may oscillate repeatedly with 9 15-minute structures to upgrade a 1h-level center. In the short term, the repeated oscillations here need to pay attention to the position near 2300~2280 below, and pay attention to whether it can break through 2400 above. The overall tendency is that the 4h-level rebound has not been completed, and the target continues to look at the 2500~2600 range. Therefore, if there is a retracement to the lower support, you can try to go long.

Trend Direction

Weekly level: Downward direction, extension of weekly decline, theoretically around 49,000, the limit is 45,000~48,000, whether it is over or not still needs to be observed

Daily level: The direction is upward, and we will see if it will fall below 49,000.

4-hour level: The direction is upward. In the short term, we will see a rebound at the 4h level, focusing on the 60500~62000 range.

1 hour level: The direction is upward. In the short term, the market should go through a 1h level correction and consolidate a 1h center before rushing above 60500.

15-minute level: Downward direction, 15-minute level callback to see if it falls below 57400​​​