As for the current trend of the market, it can be reflected that the overall market sentiment is still in a state of relative panic and anxiety. I also looked at the news and found that Bao will also give a speech next week. This is news that needs special attention.

Bitcoin is on its way to a second test of the bottom support. It has received a support signal at the 56,000 position, but it is not completely certain. If this position falls below again, then the area around 54,000 below will become a strong support position.

For the market to recover from the shock, we can only be more patient and wait.

This round of market abandons bull and bear markets and uses rising and falling trends to trade:

Each round of bull and bear markets for BTC will be different. Many experiences from the previous round will often become invalid, leaving people at a loss. Since the halving of BTC, it has begun to experience a 4-year cycle of bull and bear market transformation. However, after a large amount of funds from the U.S. stock market entered the market, whether it will still comply is an unknown. In addition, its time change cycle is too long, and it is only suitable for BTC that has not moved for a long time. In fact, there will be many very good investment opportunities in the middle.

So now, we should learn to abandon the bull market and the bear market, and use the upward trend and the downward trend as a trading guide. From the perspective of cyclical trends, every time is the same, but it is a cycle of rise and fall again and again. Looking back at the BTC review, even in a big bear market, it is still an upward trend.

In the 18-year bear market, there were 2 upward trends. In the 22-year bear market, there were 2 upward trends. The first upward trend in 22 years gave rise to opportunities to get rich, such as GMT. The second upward trend gave rise to multiple-fold markets, such as LIDO.

Therefore, if you still maintain the operation strategy of bear market and bull market, you will still miss many opportunities in 2022. Similarly, if you determined that the bull market was coming at the beginning of this year and started long-term holdings, it is also very painful now.

How to identify a trend

To be honest, it is becoming increasingly difficult to judge the start of a trend, and it requires a comprehensive judgment. After the good news, 22 years later, the bottom or top of all market conditions is often very long (at least more than 1 month), so there is enough time to make a judgment.

Let me explain here that the top formed after the upward trend is part of the upward trend, because although BTC does not rise here, the altcoin still has a very large market. Similarly, the top of the downward trend is part of the downward trend.

Specifically, the above levels are used to judge the trend

1. Technical analysis

The main chart used is the traditional chart, assisted by support and resistance levels and RSI. However, the technical side is very useful in a bull market, but it will become difficult in a bear market because there are only people who understand technology and there is often no structure for bottom fishing at the bottom of a big drop. The ma120 daily line is the bull-bear dividing line used, and it is the final bottom line for starting a medium-term trend.

2. Market sentiment

There is no quantitative indicator for market sentiment, but it is a signal of peaking/bottoming. It cannot be used alone and needs to be used in combination with other indicators. However, when combined with the currency price, the accuracy rate is very, very high. For example, the market has been bullish, but the currency price cannot rise. For example, in March 2024, a large number of people shouted that the bull market was coming, but BTC fluctuated for a long time, which led to a major adjustment of the copycat.

On the other hand, if the market is unanimously bearish, but the currency prices do not fall, it means that the market is relatively strong.

This is true for the overall market and also for tokens. It has been verified many times in history that when many people are calling for a certain coin, it is basically the top of the coin, such as blur, inscription, Pandora, etc.

3. Determine the bottom of trading volume

Trading volume is used in special circumstances, such as when judging the bottom of the market. For example, if BTC places a huge spike, you can consider whether it has reached the bottom.

4. Market purchasing power funds

The capital side is the most important signal, because capital is real and there is no way to fake it. If the capital side sends a signal, then the certainty is very high. For example, at the end of last year, US dollar capital was constantly buying the bottom, which led to a small bull market. I analyze the capital data every week. The capital side is a very good signal for the top, and the accuracy is also very high. The capital here is actually the actual purchasing power of the market.

5. Upcoming major events

Are there any major events happening recently that may change the market trend? For example, if interest rate cuts are imminent, BTC ETFs are major events.
As for the altcoins, this decline has a relatively small impact on them, and there has not been a big drop. Except for a few coins that have seen large gains in the past two days, the others have basically maintained the status quo. The main fluctuations are still in Bitcoin, Ethereum and mainstream altcoins. However, if the decline continues this time, the altcoins will not be able to hold on for too long. Therefore, we have stopped building long-term positions and are preparing to build long-term bottom-fishing positions after the interest rate cut in September. We are still focusing on short-term altcoin waves. Although the overall environment is not good, there will still be many opportunities for these tokens operated by market makers. In addition, I suggest that you take a look at Grayscale's layout.

Old people in the industry know that the last bull market was after Grayscale entered the market, and the copycat market reached an unprecedented height of madness. Even in the end, Grayscale also experienced a huge asset backtest, but looking at the situation established by Grayscale objectively A series of fund products related to cryptocurrency types will have a very significant upward cycle in price after the grayscale layout, such as sui, mkr, etc. in the past two days.

In terms of trend, Bitcoin rebounded from $49,000 to $62,700 almost in one go, and the short-term volatility will become increasingly clear. In my previous opinion, I have always believed that Bitcoin needs to complete a second bottoming out before it can start a new round of rising prices. At least for now, there is no clear signal that the bottom has been established. If the intensity of the wash increases, I will still maintain the view of a second bottoming out.