Bitcoin is expected to enter the accumulation stage. The two previous bottom tests have ended. As long as it can effectively stand firm and break through 59,000 at the current 4-hour level, it will rise again and test the resistance position near 63,000.
This week, Bitcoin gradually stabilized and rebounded after completing its second bottom. Although the rebound process is still very tortuous, the money-making effect of the market has improved significantly, which is mainly reflected in two aspects:
1. Although the price of Bitcoin is still hovering around $58,000, 30% of the top 100 currencies by market capitalization have recovered to the price level of $65,000.
2. From September 5 to September 12, the market share of altcoins increased from 9.13% to 9.8%, and the daily trading volume accounted for from 20.3% to 33.5%, showing a trend of continued fermentation.
Historical experience shows that when funds shift from focusing on absolute value to taking into account price elasticity, it often indicates that the market risk appetite is on the rise. As the mid-term bottom is completed, the market gradually enters a stage of moderate recovery. Although the rebound did not see a sudden rise, it is precisely this slow-heating state that verifies the sustainability of the rising market.
After all, under the inventory pattern, every concentrated outbreak of bullish sentiment is often a signal that the market has reached its stage-by-stage peak. Therefore, repeated washing and steady progress are the most ideal performance of a bottom rebound. Only by maintaining patience can you wait for the main upward wave.
The violent bull market is about to come, but some copycats still cannot return to their highs?
Let me tell you my thoughts. The current market value of the cryptocurrency market is about 2 trillion, and the peak of the bull market in 2021 was about 3 trillion. Everyone knows that with monetary easing/cryptocurrency cycle/economic growth, the bull market is coming!
The following assumes that the market value of this bull market can reach twice that of the previous bull market! That is 6 trillion! This is an extremely optimistic assumption.
Assuming the total market value of the cryptocurrency world is 6 trillion, how should this pie be divided?
First of all, in the alt season, BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance Index) has dropped to about 40%, or 2.4 trillion, and the coin price is about 126,000 dollars, which is also in line with the reasonable estimated target of everyone!
But the remaining pie of 3.6 trillion (60%) is embarrassing. Let’s take the king of memes, DOGE, as an example. The highest price of the last round was 0.73, and Dogecoin accounted for 4% of the total crypto market value!
But now the meme sector only accounts for 2% of the total cryptocurrency market value, and Dogecoin only accounts for 30% of the total meme sector market value! Assuming that memes can account for 3% of the total cryptocurrency market value in the bull market, Dogecoin will also account for 30% of the total meme market value (this does not take into account the endless new memes that will emerge in the future). The market value of Dogecoin is 6T*3%*0.3, and the corresponding coin price is about $0.3, which is the limit!
In 2021, there were very few meme options, so DOGE could account for more than 80% of the meme market value. Now it is impossible!
Let’s look at ADA again. In the last bull market, there were very few L1 public chains. At its peak, ADA’s market value reached 4.4% of the total cryptocurrency market value!
There are so many new L1s in this bull market that ADA accounts for only 0.62% of the total cryptocurrency market value. If the ADA price is to break its previous high, ADA’s share of the total cryptocurrency market value must reach more than 2.2%.
To become a public chain that accounts for 2.2% of the current cryptocurrency market value, the market attention should be like SOL at the beginning of this year, and it needs a lot of themes to set off. At present, new public chains such as TON, APT, SUI and KAS all have themes. It is very difficult for ADA to grab 2.2% of the market value. I estimate that it can account for 1.2%. It is extremely optimistic that the price of the currency can quadruple to $1.4!
The main reason is that there are too many projects/themes now. Even if the fish tank doubles in size and the number of fish in it increases by 4-5 times, the market liquidity increases, but the fish will not get fatter. In the second half of the bull market, the better strategy is to stick to the big cake income and pay attention to market hotspots to grasp the block rotation, which is more stable!
Some potential opportunities in the market today:
1. Trump launches crypto platform World Liberty Financial: Trump announced the launch of his family's cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial, positioning it as an alternative to traditional banks. This news may attract widespread attention in the market, especially for new users. The X Space launch event next Monday will be an important node for market observation.
2. The practical use of stablecoins is increasing: New research by Visa and Castle Island Ventures shows that stablecoins are increasingly being used for practical purposes in addition to cryptocurrency transactions. This trend may drive the further application of stablecoins in payment, cross-border transactions and other fields, and it is worth paying attention to the development of related projects.
3. ZKsync launches on-chain governance system: ZKsync officially launched an on-chain governance system designed based on the principles of separation of powers and checks and balances. This system may enhance the decentralized management of the ZKsync ecosystem, attract more developers and users to participate, and lay a solid foundation for its future expansion.
4. Pendle expands BTC staking function: As a DeFi platform, Pendle not only has advantages in ETH, but now also expands the BTC staking function, which further expands its user base. For investors who are concerned about DeFi staking and returns, Pendle may have more opportunities in the future.
5. Management and size of the Grayscale XRP Trust: The Grayscale XRP Trust has a management fee of 2.5%. Although its size is small, if the XRP market strengthens, it may attract new attention, especially as the regulatory environment for Ripple becomes clearer.
