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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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This week's review
This week, from September 18 to September 25, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $27,483 and the lowest was close to $26,000, with a fluctuation range of about 5.4%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 26,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
26,000–31,000: approximately 4.04 million pieces;
20000~25000: about 1.86 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 24,000 to 26,000 in the short term is 79%;
The probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Important news
Economic News
The interest rate dot plot released by the Federal Reserve may still show that the interest rate will be increased by 25 basis points in November, which will have a restraining effect.
Powell expects core PCE growth to be 3.9% in August, compared with 4.2% in the previous month, which means that the core inflation announced in September will enter the 3% range, easing inflation anxiety.
The Bank of England unexpectedly paused its interest rate hikes and announced a rate of 5.25%, compared with expectations of 5.5%;
The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly paused its rate hikes and announced a rate of 1.75%, compared with expectations of 2.0%;
ECB's Christine Lagarde said: "Most potential inflation indicators have started to decline and the ECB believes that interest rates have reached restrictive levels."
The interest rate forecasting market shows that there is a 72.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in November, and the probability of another rate hike is less than 30%.
Morgan Stanley said: The Federal Reserve has completed the interest rate hike cycle. The decline in inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on hold until it is ready to cut interest rates next year. The US government shutdown will support the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo at the November meeting.
Encrypted ecological news
Grayscale has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a new ETH futures ETF, which is registered under the Securities Act of 1933.
The Chainalysis report stated that India has become the world's second-largest cryptocurrency market, with a total transaction volume of nearly $269 billion from July 2022 to June 2023.
Blockchain research firm Chainalysis reports that cryptocurrency use is growing in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, as inflation soars.
PayPal's social payment platform Venmo will launch the PavPal USD stablecoin PYUSD. PayPal added the service of exchanging cryptocurrencies for USD on September 11.
Bitdeer, a mining company, has seen its shares increased by three institutions, including BlackRock, Credit Suisse Asset Management and FirstTrust Advisors L.P. The company has been included in several BlackRock ETFs.
Park Hyung-jun, the mayor of Busan, South Korea, and the Busan Digital Asset Exchange Establishment Promotion Committee held a press conference at the Busan City Hall to announce the plan to promote the establishment of the Busan Digital Asset Exchange (BDX).
Eight UK House of Lords members and politicians addressed global leaders on the opportunities and challenges posed by the development of web3 technology through the Metaverse.
The UK has the potential to become a blockchain-enabled “smart nation,” calling for more national blockchain roadmaps and collaboration between countries.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Accumulation rate of whales and small groups
High-weight selling pressure
This week we will be penetrating the market from a supply and demand perspective.
(The following figure shows the accumulation rate of whales and small groups)
Dark green: whale accumulation rate
The demand for whales has dropped significantly compared to last year.
In the current few months, the demand has only increased slightly and there has not been a significant increase.
In terms of supply and demand, the current demand is not strong.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
The market selling pressure is still low.
The momentum of selling volume is not strong, and the supply side has not put too much pressure on the market and industry.
Overall, the supply side is slowly declining.
Market supply and demand have currently reached a delicate balance point and are slowly shifting toward the demand side.
Mid-term exploration
Realized cost basis
Whale accumulation coefficient
Sell-side risk ratio
High-weight selling group
(The figure below shows the realized cost basis)
Yellow area: short-term liquidity support zone
Orange line: Realized average cost
Blue line: Short-term participant supply
When the BTC market price is stuck below the liquidity support band, the market will enter an extremely painful state.
It also means that the positions of short-term participants are in a loss-making state, which is relatively uncomfortable.
Perhaps this situation is also a manifestation of the sluggish market.
At the same time, when short-term participants are in a downturn,
This may cause the market to fall into a state of weakness, and the recent adjustment state may continue.
(The following figure shows the accumulation coefficient of giant whales)
The whales have also lost the willingness to accumulate recently, and the overall depressed mood may also be affecting the current status of the participants in reverse.
When their willingness to increase holdings is lower, the market adjustment state may continue for some time.
(The following figure shows the seller's risk ratio)
The current selling rate of sellers has slowed down, and the seller's power may be relatively weakened compared with the state of market value circulation.
(The following figure shows the high-weight selling pressure group)
Red line: High-weight selling pressure from short-term participants
Blue line: high-weight selling pressure from long-term participants
Orange line: High-weight selling pressure ratio in circulation
All three broken lines are in a stage of slowing down and falling, which may be due to the lack of significant selling pressure from high-weight stocks in the recent period.
It is possible that during the adjustment phase, these participants with a larger influence also chose to be relatively reluctant to sell.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Yitai Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the neutral zone, moderate risk
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Last week, we mentioned that the risk factor gave a certain rebound space, and then the market started a short rebound. This week, the current risk factor is still in the neutral area, with no particular tendency. Whether it rebounds or falls, there is a certain space. Continue to pay attention to the rapid upward or downward movement of the risk factor.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
The option trading volume has dropped significantly, and the proportion of put options has dropped slightly compared with last week and is currently at a medium-to-high level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
The current derivatives trading volume does not fluctuate much and remains at a low level, indicating that most derivatives traders are currently in a wait-and-see state.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
The implied volatility of options has declined and the activity of options traders has decreased.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to indifferent
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The short-term small-scale price fluctuations did not cause any positive or panic sentiment in the market. Since there are still a large number of unrealized losses, this week's focus is on market panic represented by loss transfer volume.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
Last week, we mentioned that the large increase in new addresses and active addresses in the short term indicated a certain volatility. Currently, after the volatility, the number of new active addresses has slightly decreased and is at a medium-high level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall outflow is accumulated and the selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The pie is currently in a state of small outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
E Taiyi is as usual, outflow and accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has been lost slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in the Americas showed signs of recovery last week, but has now almost disappeared, while purchasing power in Europe and Asia has only recovered slightly.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC is currently experiencing a small outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT is currently experiencing a small outflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 25,000; there is a willingness to sell at 28,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23,000, 24,000, and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23,000, 24,000, and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 28,000 and 30,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 24,000 and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 28,000 and 31,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The core PCE released at the end of this month and next month's CPI are more important and will determine future market confidence.
Later in the cycle the Fed may use more deterrent language to maintain or further influence the downward path of inflation while preventing market overheating and front-running.
As the market changes, the deterrent effect will gradually decline and the effect will become weaker and weaker. For the market, the last rate hike may have become less important.
The data and inflation in the next two months will further affect the expectations and plans of the entire Federal Reserve, which is worth paying attention to.
On-chain long-term insights:
Market demand is not higher than the previous year or the beginning of the year, but has dropped significantly. Currently, the demand side is increasing slightly.
The supply side did not cause too much pressure, the market was relatively stable and slowly declining.
Market setting:
Silence, more participants choose to wait and see, and the supply and demand relationship is not squeezed or distorted too much.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The market is below the short-term liquidity support band and is relatively suffering;
The whales may be adversely affected by the market conditions, and the recent state is relatively sluggish, with weak accumulation;
Sell-side power is currently weak relative to market value;
The overall selling pressure of high-weight stocks has slowed down.
Market setting:
Suffering, Adjustment
The market may adjust in a relatively painful state. Due to the small number of short-term participants, liquidity may be lacking in the near future.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area, and the risk is moderate
The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-to-high level, and the probability of fluctuations is increasing.
Market sentiment rating: neutral to cold.
The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulated outflow state, with low selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has been lost slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 25,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 28,000 price level.
The probability that the price will not fall below 24,000-26,000 in the short term is 79%; the probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Market setting:
The few positive signals last week have basically disappeared this week, and the current market sentiment has returned to a cold state. It is normal to have short-term rapid fluctuations. What remains unchanged is that it is still more inclined to be affected by news or the derivatives market, and continues to pay attention to unrealized losses.
Strategy suggestion: Spot dynamic hedging
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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