In addition, although the inflation expectation weight of the New York Fed is not high, it has actually consolidated the probability of CME's 25 basis point rate cut in September. The current probability is 54.5%. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has been reduced to 45.5%.
I mentioned a doubt before. Powell may have expected the employment data last week, which is to let the market cool down with an economic recession and effectively slow down the high bubble state of the financial market. At the same time, the defensive rate cut of 25 basis points in September has a greater effect than before.
