Will there be a rate cut in September?

The forecasts of many economists and the market point to a common direction: the Fed may cut interest rates in September. According to the latest survey results, nearly four-fifths of the economists surveyed expect the Fed to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September12. In addition, data from CME's "Fed Watch" show that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 51.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 48.5%3. These data show that the market and the economics community have relatively consistent expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September, although the specific extent and decision of the interest rate cut still need to be determined based on the economic data and market reaction at the time.

The Fed faces many considerations in choosing the timing of the interest rate cut, including maintaining policy independence, avoiding interference from political factors, and responding to possible economic risks. Despite this, market expectations and economists' forecasts point to one direction, that is, the possibility of a rate cut in September is relatively high. ‌However, the final decision still needs to wait for the specific announcement of the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting in September‌! #BTC