After the speeches of Fed officials this week, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has been slightly reduced, currently remaining at 48.5%.
Next week, macro data will usher in PPI, retail data and July CPI data. If the data reveals the possibility of weakening US economic growth, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September will increase, and it will also bring certain negative effects, that is, the so-called US economic recession theory.
If the data shows that the US economy remains stable, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut will be reduced again. At present, the September rate cut is nominally confirmed. According to the current market situation, a 25 basis point rate cut is the most "mild" result.
However, we must also pay attention to the impact of certain uncertain factors brought about by Japanese yen capital.
