After a sharp drop, JPMorgan believes that three-quarters of the world's carry trades have been closed and volatility has begun to cool. On Thursday, the Nasdaq rose 3% during the session, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, and gold prices rose 1.7%.

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The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has issued guidance on cryptocurrency promotion compliance, its first set of rules for all crypto companies marketing to UK consumers, urging all companies to read the good and bad practice guides, as well as the guidance document GC23/1 previously issued by the UK FCA. If a company wishes to provide services that fall within the scope of the Anti-Money Laundering Regulations (MLRs), it must register with the UK FCA. These services include providing crypto asset trading, peer-to-peer services, issuing new crypto assets, and custodial wallet providers. A New York court has finally approved the repayment of $12.7 billion by the defunct cryptocurrency trading platform FTX and Alameda Research to FTX creditors as part of a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In a document dated August 7, U.S. District Judge Peter Castel formally approved a $12.7 billion consent order reached by FTX and Alameda to resolve the CFTC's 20-month lawsuit. The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved the issuance of the world's first Solana spot ETF. The Solana ETF approved by the CVM will use the CME CF Solana Dollar Reference Rate F as the reference price. Australia's Monochrome Spot BTC ETF (IBTC) holds 110 BTC as of now. According to HODL15Capital data, as of August 7, the Hong Kong BTC spot ETF held a total of 4,379 BTC, equivalent to approximately $278 million. Genesis Trading distributed $1.817 billion worth of BTC and ETH to 203 addresses through liquidation distribution addresses on August 2. About 15% of the BTC and ETH distributed to creditors were transferred out/sold, and the other 85% did not move. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws by selling XRP to retail investors through trading platforms. But Ripple’s 1,278 institutional sales transactions violated securities laws, for which it was fined $125.035 million, less than the $1 billion in disgorgement and prejudgment interest and $900 million in civil penalties sought by the SEC.

The court ruled to prohibit Ripple from violating federal securities laws in the future and issued an injunction document requiring Ripple to file a registration statement if it plans to sell any securities. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that the SEC required a payment of $2 billion, and the court reduced their request by about 94%, respecting the court's ruling and clearly continuing to develop. Hideki Ito, Minister of the Financial Services Agency of Japan: The possibility of launching a cryptocurrency ETF will not be completely ruled out, but it needs to be considered. Bloomberg reported that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said he personally holds more than $1 billion worth of BTC. On August 7, the US BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $45.6 million. BTCW had a net inflow of $10.5 million, the highest single-day net inflow in the history of the BTC spot ETF. Cointelegraph reported that Morgan Stanley, a major US asset management company, authorized its 15,000 financial advisors to recommend BTC spot ETFs to clients starting on August 7. Confirmed a previous CNBC report that the company plans to recommend BTC ETFs starting on August 7. Winning the approval of Morgan Stanley is a milestone in the cryptocurrency space. Among major wealth management companies, Morgan Stanley is the largest. Its advisors manage approximately $3.75 trillion in assets. QCP Capital reports that despite the incredible market turmoil on Monday, assets have rebounded significantly, and traditional financial markets have felt the normalization of cryptocurrencies for the first time. It is recommended to pay attention to the trends of the Nasdaq, Nikkei and USD/JPY, as cross-asset correlations remain high in the short term; as the acute phase of market volatility ends, it is recommended to establish long-term bullish positions in anticipation of the arrival of a rate cut cycle; it is more inclined to choose a trading time frame of 3 to 6 months to prevent losses caused by high volatility. JPMorgan analysts said that the rebound was mainly due to institutional investors, who have limited or no de-risking of BTC futures despite the overall market turmoil. JPMorgan's futures position indicator shows that these investors have a bullish outlook, and BTC futures prices are more premium to spot.

The massive liquidations from the MtGox and Genesis bankruptcies may be behind us, and cash payouts from the FTX bankruptcy later this year could fuel demand in the cryptocurrency market. This round of sharp decline in BTC was not caused by specific problems with cryptocurrency, but by the correction of traditional risk assets such as U.S. stocks. Institutional investors helped support the rebound of BTC, but retail investors also contributed to the decline of BTC, analysis Experts recommend maintaining a cautious outlook. Fundstrat's Tom Lee reports that the performance of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) suggests the worst is likely over. The VIX hit a record on Monday, surging 172% intraday to 65.73, the third-highest level in the index's history, the previous two being in 2008 and 2020. On Tuesday, the VIX index fell quickly, falling from 65.73 to 27.71 on Tuesday, a drop of 58%. After the VIX experiences such a rapid decline, U.S. stocks tend to rise significantly in the coming period. The VIX closed down more than 10 points yesterday. The previous three times were in 2010, 2011 and March 2020. The average gain of the S&P 500 index one year later was 37%. Looking ahead, lower interest rates have long been seen as a positive catalyst for U.S. stocks, with investors expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points before the end of the year. History shows that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is usually carried out gradually, and interest rate cuts are often large and responsive. Because monetary policymakers are forced to adopt a defensive posture, such as economic recession or financial market chaos, the economy rarely enjoys the legendary "Soft landing", it often faces emergency landing. If history is any guide, you should be on the lookout for potential rapid and deep interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Nasdaq rose 3% intraday, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, gold prices rose 1.7%, and the market rebounded 9%. The market believes that the root cause of this round of decline is that the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and U.S. employment data fell short of expectations, which led to the unwinding of arbitrage trades between other markets and the Japanese market (when Japan's interest rates were low, other markets such as the United States borrowed money from the Japanese market; Japan After the interest rate hike, the market fled to close positions/formed a "smash market" such as the US stock market). JPMorgan believes three-quarters of global carry trades have been unwound. On Thursday, the U.S. stock market/currency market rebounded.Today's post is a bit tedious. I briefly outlined the reasons for the decline and excerpted the views of mainstream institutions on the future market. What the currency market needs to pay attention to is that "the New York court finally approved the bankrupt cryptocurrency trading platform FTX to pay $12.7 billion to creditors. The media previously reported that it was a cash compensation. #美联储何时降息？ #加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析