These past two days have been quite uneasy. Today's Black Monday has made me even more depressed. The backstage and Moments seem to have exploded. Let me just have a brief chat.
In a normal downtrend within a cycle, there is no need to panic if the market drops by 10-30 points. However, in the face of a major economic crisis or a global stock market crash (it is too early to say whether there will be a stock market crash now, as we will mainly look at the future situation of the US stock market), no investor can remain calm.
The biggest drop in the cryptocurrency market this year has come.
After falling for five consecutive days, the market plummeted again. This kind of scene can only be seen two or three times in four years.
Looking back at the trend, this decline is almost a replica of 312, first falling for a few days and then plummeting.
Both declines were caused by stock market circuit breakers, and also stemmed from the market's panic that high interest rates in the United States would lead to economic collapse and even financial crisis.
For a long time, everyone has been worried about whether the U.S. stock market would explode after a decade of bull market. Recently, it was finally hit by the daily interest rate hike.
The last crisis was the epidemic, and this time the trigger was Japan.
On August 5, the Japanese stock market plummeted after opening, with the Nikkei 225 index's decline widening to 10% in the afternoon, falling below 34,000 points for the first time since January 10; the Japan Topix index fell more than 12%, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism again, and trading was suspended for the second time today.
Risk assets in almost most sectors of the world, including South Korea, Europe, and Hong Kong stocks, fell immediately.
The fuses kept blowing.
Today is Monday. The U.S. market will open tonight after being closed for two days. A decline is almost inevitable and the market is digesting this negative news.
Whether the U.S. stock market can hold up will be the key factor that determines whether there will be a V-reversal in the short term.
But there will definitely be rescue measures?
The answer is, definitely there will be.
After the accident in Japan today, the Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting to discuss interest rates.
Although it does have the meaning of mending the stable door after the horse has bolted, there seems to be no other point of discussion except for interest rate cuts and unexpectedly large interest rate cuts.
The first rate cut of 50% is almost a foregone conclusion, and it is possible that it will be brought forward. If it is brought forward, there may be three rate cuts this year, with the probability of the first cut being 25% and 50% respectively.
It was previously expected that there would be a wave of market movements before the interest rate cut, but the rhythm seems to have been disrupted by the unexpected situation in the United States and Japan.
If there is no market trend before the rate cut, then the cut will be postponed instead of coming to an abrupt end.
After experiencing 312, look at the next two years, and then look at today.
Although the specific point cannot be determined, the opportunity to deploy in batches will definitely arise before the interest rate cut, because Bitcoin is infinitely close to the position when the ETF is passed, and it is also the cost price for many ETFs to buy. Even when the ETF has performed poorly, it has recovered all the gains since the beginning of this year. Many copycats have even fallen below the lowest position in the bear market.
After this decline, there will be a relatively large market trend.
However, it is still necessary to say that any risky assets should be arranged with reasonable positions and arranged in batches. At this time, buying a copycat is more cost-effective, and the first consideration is the affordability. #加密市场急跌 #BTC走势分析
