The market briefly rose to 70K but was unable to break through, and retreated to 66K overnight. I once said in "Slogans are just talk, Trump's flattery is the biggest benefit." Politicians' two mouths stir up emotional emotions, but before the substantive benefits come, they will return to calm.

I have talked about an indicator DXY (Dollar Index) before. It reflects the index of pricing the US dollar in other countries' currencies. There were ten types before, and now there are six types. Generally speaking, if the United States raises interest rates and other countries do not, it will cause other countries' currencies to depreciate against the US dollar and DXY will rise. At the same time, the interest rate of government bonds will increase, and other financial assets will fall.

If you look closely in the past, you will find that DXY and crypto prices are usually inversely correlated. This time, the plunge in Bitcoin was accompanied by a strengthening of DXY and the impact of the expected selling pressure from Mt. Gox on the market.

Of course, I was just talking nonsense, just to find an excuse for the plunge. The interest rate meeting is about to be held, and the market predicts that the probability of a rate cut in September has exceeded 90%. The following is the probability chart on the 26th. Now the probability is even higher, almost 100%.

A slight drop is always a good thing. In the past, every major event accompanied the main upward trend, and it was necessary to leave room for brewing. As long as you don't rush in with leverage, everything will be fine.

...

In fact, before I wrote this article, the market started to rebound, and this time it was mainly Ethereum. The reason is that Ethereum ETF saw positive inflows for the first time. The approximate data is:

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF ETH had a net inflow of $12.3588 million in a single day, and the current total net inflow of Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETH is $181 million. The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net inflow in a single day yesterday was BlackRock ETF ETHA, with a net inflow of $118 million in a single day, and the current total net inflow of ETHA is $618 million. The second is Fidelity ETF FETH, with a net inflow of $16.3567 million in a single day, and the current total net inflow of FETH is $261 million.

Grayscale is the largest net outflow fund, with a historical net outflow of $1.844 billion for ETHE. I have said before that Grayscale's BTC Trust also has a historical net outflow, but the entire BTCETF has a net inflow most of the time. When it comes to the Ethereum ETF, the strength is much smaller, and investors have begun to have doubts.

BlackRock and Fidelity are still powerful. Whether it is BTC or ETH, the fee rate of Grayscale ETF is too high. In the end, it will flow out and be transferred to other ETF shares. You can simply understand it as "changing hands".

At this point, we have to mention the significance of institutions to the industry. Now the entire industry has set off an anti-VC trend, and at the same time, the financing events and financing funds of the entire industry have fallen back to 2020. Very bleak.

In fact, VCs also do this in traditional markets. For U.S. stocks and A-shares, VCs all raise valuations in the primary market and then exit at high levels in the secondary market.

The problem here lies in the project itself and the secondary market results. Some markets are full of scattered soldiers, such as the crypto industry, some markets have secondary funds that have less faith than retail investors, and some markets have secondary institutions that have firm beliefs (don’t take it personally).

For the crypto industry, almost all projects have to go through ultra-long-term market testing and implementation improvements. This means that they can only operate by incurring long-term strategic losses, and investors need to see explosive growth in data in order to survive.

Retail investors certainly can’t hold on, and they don’t have that much money. What is needed is for secondary funds to organize sufficient funds to provide price support for the secondary market. There are no serious and particularly powerful secondary funds in the crypto industry.

The market is showing an inverted relationship between the primary and secondary markets. It is easy to guess that with billions of market value placed in the secondary market, who has the ability to take over? If not, the price will only fall.

Of course, due to the lack of supervision, there are too many cases of petty theft and insider trading in the crypto industry, and the big money is also worried that they can get in but not get out, so there must be relevant bills and policies in the future. Without them, no one will abide by the rules. It is just a separate law, or a one-size-fits-all approach.

This is also an inevitable trend. Now the American political circle attaches great importance to the encryption community. The benefit that everyone can bring is to buy Bitcoin and promote the implementation of relevant bills.

...

1. Movement has completed a $38 million Series A round of financing. This is a modular L2 of ZKS, which is said to be an innovative L2 that can make the MOVE language compatible with EVM. Many top VCs have invested in it. To be honest, it has little practical application, but airdrops can still be done. Many people criticize VC coins, but VC coins are still the first choice for airdrops, because only VC coins can guarantee the number of airdrops and secondary market value. Many small coins may be able to airdrop, but they are not as stable as VC coins. ZKS and LayerZero have failed before, and there is a high probability that they will be more restrained in the future regarding VC insider trading.

2. Vitalik recharged his faith in Ethereum at the EDCON conference. Ethereum has been focusing on infrastructure construction in the past ten years, and will definitely focus on applications in the next ten years. I think we should not think that the Ethereum Foundation is capable of making any good programs. Everyone should do their own thing. As long as the foundation is open enough and better for developers, the rest will be left to the developers to compete with each other.

Speaking of this, there are always people who say that Ethereum is disappointing, but the return rate of Ethereum in the past ten years is higher than that of Bitcoin. What is the disappointment? Buy it yesterday, it falls today, and you will be disappointed tomorrow.

3. The big guy dug deep into Solana data and wrote a long article criticizing it. I have mentioned this issue before, but I did not do data analysis. The big guy did it in great detail. It is probably that the extremely high transaction volume and exaggerated transaction frequency on Sol are due to the activeness of robots and MEME tokens.

But everyone is losing money on meme coins. Once everyone's fatigue value is exceeded, the "boom" will immediately return to its original state. It makes sense. The market value of meme on Sol is about 9 billion, and the funds of retail investors in the crypto market are about the same. Now the daily trading volume is more than 2 billion, and the handling fee is 4%. If it continues like this, according to the 99.4% loss rate, it will be over in less than three months.

It is important to point out that meme does not represent Sol. Sol is a promising chain. It has never missed any hot spots in the past. It is much better than ICP and XTZ. I have already explained its logic here, so I will not say more about it in "ETH or Sol?"

Friends who like to play X should read more foreign language circles. Simplified Chinese KOLs are either yellow or yellow, and there are too few people who do in-depth research on data and have quality interactions.