The situation regarding SOL as of July 19, in recent days there have been requests to sort it out. Today the asset showed an impulse of +10%, to the volume level of $172.78.
At the end of June, the asset showed growth on the news that VanEck had filed an application to open the VanEck Solana Trust. The asset then showed growth, as expected, towards the EMA of the 50 day TF. But buyers were unable to break through it either the first or the second time. Returning to the breakdown of this EMA only on July 14th.
In June-July, the asset formed a “Double Bottom” pattern on the daily chart with a target of around $186. But most likely the maximum target will be the volume level of $180.94. Growth towards the target from July 5, like BTC, is completed in a five-wave structure. And today's growth is the fifth wave. We expect its completion on July 20-21.
If, as part of the growth in the next two days, the price does not break through the volume level of $180.94 and does not go significantly higher (which is unlikely), we will wait for a correction to develop. Probably another test of the EMA 50 day TF, now as support. Therefore, we evaluate the breakdown of the downward trend that occurred today since March 18 as false.
During a correction in the event of a breakdown of the EMA of the 50 day TF, we are waiting for a test of the important volume level of $146.08. Where it will be necessary to reassess the situation.
In general, after the correction brewing for the next week, we expect the continuation of the upward trend with the goal of updating the cycle level and, in the future, a new ATH.
The asset is still “cooling down” after the active growth of October 2023-March 2024. Back in March they wrote that the beginning correction would last for a long time. The trend reversal indicator signaled a decline on both the weekly and monthly timeframes.
Ideally, for long-term selection, wait for the test of the EMA 50 of the weekly TF (currently $112), but there is no certainty that a test of this moving average will be in the foreseeable future.
