The current market performance remains very stable. Under the selling pressure from institutions such as Grayscale, prices have been stabilized at the current position, which is a positive signal for future market conditions. On the 23rd, Ethereum's spot ETF will be listed for trading. The credibility of this news is very high and deserves close attention.


The selling pressure in Mentougou will not appear immediately, but will gradually appear as the price of Bitcoin rises. Some investors are willing to hold on.


In the future bull market where funds are concentrated, the market can easily absorb this selling pressure.


When will this bull market begin? The key signal is interest rate cuts.


The timing of the interest rate cut is the most concerned topic in the entire financial circle. The market generally expects that it will most likely be in September. Of course, there are different opinions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the interest rate cut should be postponed to the end of the year to allow more time for observation. They believe that before cutting interest rates, they need to be sure that the data shows that inflation has returned to the target of 2%.


The global economy is currently facing challenges, and the situation in the United States is particularly severe, especially Biden is facing re-election pressure under the challenge of Trump. He urgently needs to win the hearts and minds of the people and votes by boosting the economy. Interest rate cuts are his nuclear weapon to restore the economy. Trump has publicly stated that he does not want to cut interest rates before the election because it may affect the fairness of the election. Therefore, we can speculate that interest rate cuts may come earlier than expected.


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Near Saturday and Sunday, half of the time there was volatility or callback. After 9 consecutive days of net inflow of ETF funds, the on-chain data showed:


1. Stablecoins have not left the exchange on a large scale


2. No large-scale inflow of BTC into Binance


So the risk level is not high. The general trend is that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, which is bullish. There are two positives next week:


ETH's ETF may be launched, and Trump will speak at the BTC conference.


The current risk mainly lies in Mentougou, which has 140,000 BTC.


It will be distributed gradually over time, and every large transfer in the wallet will bring a small emotional panic to BTC.


Use some simple logic to understand the current market situation:


1. Bitcoin monthly chart shows that the bull market is very obvious. Currently, the monthly chart has only crossed a few lines. It is normal that the price is consolidating near the new high, washing out the profit-taking, and providing support for the next wave of rise. As I said before, the maximum correction to 60,000 is the limit, and it may not reach that level yet.


This phenomenon occurred when Bitcoin reached $6,000 in the 2017 bull market and before the start of the second wave of the main uptrend in 2020, when Bitcoin was around 10,000 yuan. (It consolidated around 10,000 yuan for 6 months)


2. Shanzhai needs to learn to delay the enjoyment: the siphon effect of Bitcoin is still there, and the hot spots of Shanzhai are still there, but they are delayed in time as the cycle changes. Especially now that there are so many leeks and so many currencies, the main players are also waiting through the wash, taking advantage of the momentum to launch opportunities. (The indicators of Shanzhai for Bitcoin are currently at the bottom, pointing to the eve of the outbreak)


3. Adjust your mindset: Many people are now doubting that the bull market is about to end, because they are going crazy because of the torture of the market. The more pessimistic voices there are, the healthier the main force is washing here.


4. With so many favorable factors in the future to provide support, the second half of the bull market is bound to come!


1.ETH ETF。

2. Prague.

3. Expectations of interest rate cuts and substantial inflow of interest rate cut funds.

4. The US election obtains votes from crypto users and releases more favorable policy news.

5. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision will allow banks to have a 2% crypto reserve exposure.


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The current situation is a typical bull market, with a period of rise and a period of sidewaysness, especially for copycats, which take three steps forward and three steps back in the bull market, and then run six steps. The time for copycats to explode is actually very short, and the six steps will be in the last 1 to 2 months of the bull market.


At this point, the market needs a wealth-creating effect to maintain its popularity, and it also needs more people to enter the market, otherwise who will the main players sell their chips to? They have almost finished their layout, so what remains is to create momentum, drive the entry of off-market funds, and find an opportunity to cash out and leave the market at a suitable high level!


Let us welcome the madness of the second half of the year. The feast of the cryptocurrency world has just begun. Cheer up, seize the opportunity, buy decisively, and step onto the train of wealth!


As for the Federal Reserve, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in August is about 94.5%, but the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%. This means that there is basically no suspense about the interest rate cut starting in September. The last shot of the market may not have come yet, but the accumulation of momentum for a new round of main upward waves is actually preparing for bullish momentum.