Gold hits new all-time highs, the question is what's driving it? And will it continue to hit new highs?
It's actually quite interesting in terms of drivers, with ETF data this week showing a big increase in long positions. I think different investors are buying gold for different reasons, some are buying it for safety after the Trump shooting; some are buying it to protect against inflation, fearing that Trump will bring inflation. Also, gold's traditional correlations are back, bond yields have been falling, especially yesterday afternoon when they fell a lot, and the dollar has been falling, both of which are good for gold, so gold has been rising almost every day this week, driven by different reasons at different times.
Gold has reached this high twice in recent months, and both times there have been big pullbacks, so some traders are a little nervous now, after all, the previous pullbacks came quickly and violently. For me this time is a little different, but we still have to be careful, I think the key is US Treasury yields, if yields remain low and continue to fall, gold may continue to break new highs. There was a time when gold hit a new high, yields were actually rising, which is why I told my internal friends at the time that I was not optimistic about the rise and might short. But this time is a little different, yields are falling. If yields rise in the next few days that could trigger a pullback, so that's what we'll be watching next.
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