An important nuance in today's US consumer inflation data is the negative index in the month-on-month data. -0.1% with a forecast of 0.1% and the previous indicator of 0.0%.

In English-language X, there is active discussion that this is the first negative result of the consumer price index since 2020. In 4 years. For the entire Biden presidency. A tangible signal.#CMEGroupupdated interest rate expectations.

Forecast for the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 31: 

- 91.2% - there will be either a pause or a decrease by 0.25 percentage points.

- 8.8% - there will be a decrease by either 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 percentage points.

- there are no forecasts for a decrease by either 0.5 percentage points or 0.75 percentage points.

But for the next meeting, already on September 18, there are already extremely optimistic expectations. Failure to do so would have hurt the markets in the moment:

- 10.9% - there will be either a pause or a decrease by 0.25 percentage points.

- 81.3% - there will be a decrease by either 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 percentage points.

- 7.7% - there will be a decrease by either 0.5 percentage points or 0.75 percentage points.