The BTC rate is clearly below the EMA of the 200 day TF for the sixth (!) day. Every day since July 6, the price tests it or even breaks it (like yesterday) and at the same time rolls back. Such an expressive fight for EMA is not a common occurrence.
One could consider the movements of recent days to be a squeeze with the prospect of a breakout and consolidation above this moving average. If it weren't for yesterday's candle. Yesterday's selling pressure is confusing when trying to consolidate above this EMA and above the downward trend since July 7th. This is an indicator of the strength of sellers.
Otherwise, on July 8, candles with decreasing lows were formed on the daily chart. After yesterday's unsuccessful breakout attempt, today the price captured liquidity behind yesterday's low. But so far there are no signals that this will be enough to break through the EMA and continue growth.
On the side of the bulls are the MACD on the daily TF, which once again promises growth (to a lesser extent, only the prospect of crossing the signal line) and the RSI on the daily TF (to a greater extent, there is a breakdown of the downward trend since June 5, and a retest of the breakdown).
Also, although with difficulty, an attempt to consolidate above the downward trend since June 7 begins on the price chart itself.
There is parity in the power of buyers and sellers. Which, given the factor of Germany/Saxony merging #BTC, FUD on Mt.Gox and general extremely negative retail sentiment, we would rather write it as a plus for the bulls.
TOTAL:
The longer this struggle for the EMA 200 of the daily TF goes on, with decreasing volatility, the more likely it is that the takeout will be sharp. And taking into account the liquidity accumulated on both sides, we first wait for a false movement in one direction and then a true one in the other.
We definitely don’t have a priority expectation right now, only these marker levels. We are waiting for volatility in consumer inflation and looking at the situation at the end of the day. But we repeat - based on a combination of factors, we believe that the current parity of buyers and sellers is more likely a bullish signal than a bearish one. Because the bulls are fighting “in spite of”. And the bears are not helped by the “fair wind” from a number of reasons for the fall.
An ideal news reason for increased volatility and outflow in both directions would be today's data on consumer inflation in the US at 15:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time. A reason to sit on the fence for futures enthusiasts.
The bulls’ task for today is to fix the price above the EMA of the 200 day TF following the surge in volatility. This will open the way to the volume level of $62,987, where there is a whole pool of resistance separating the rebound from the reversal.
If, following the publication of data, the price remains below the EMA 200 of the daily TF and the day closes below it again, we will estimate the chances of reaching the volume level of $51,604 at about 70%.
