Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered his semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the U.S. Senate, answering questions on issues such as monetary policy and bank supervision.
The focus is on the following two aspects:
1. US CPI: The CPI in May dropped to 3.3%, although it is still some distance from the target of 2%. The CPI data for June will be released on Thursday, which will be very important. At present, the market generally expects that the US CPI will continue to fall, which is more favorable for interest rate cuts.
2. Employment data: The just released US employment data exceeded expectations, but the data for April and May were revised down. Therefore, the market generally believes that this employment data is inflated. From the salary data, we can also see that the US job market has slowed down, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%.
Let’s briefly summarize the points made in Powell’s speech:
I. Current Situation
1. Slow GDP growth: The rate of economic growth has slowed down, but it is still growing.
2. Low unemployment rate: The job market is performing well and the unemployment rate remains low.
3. Inflation has eased: Although inflation has eased, it is still above the Fed’s 2% target.
4. Monetary policy: The interest rate will remain stable between 5.25% and 5.5% and will not be adjusted until the inflation target of 2% is achieved.
2. Views on interest rate cuts
Powell said that whether to cut interest rates will depend on changes in the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate rises, interest rate cuts will be taken quickly, otherwise the status quo will be maintained. Therefore, the unemployment rate data needs to be paid close attention to next.
3. Impact on the market
Powell's speech had little impact on the market, and Bitcoin quickly gave up its gains after a brief rebound.
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1. GHOST
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2. TREES
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3.BE
After the price of SEI hit the lower support of the falling wedge pattern, it triggered a strong rebound.
The RSI is about to break above its downtrend line, which has been acting as strong support since the beginning of the year.
This suggests that the price is likely to sustain a strong uptrend and attempt to break out of the upper resistance zone between $0.43 and $0.45.
The coin is expected to experience some minor pullbacks and a period of consolidation before a breakout to near the initial target of $0.6 or even above $0.58 is expected.
