“German blow”: what did the sales of BTC by the German government show?

As always, bulls and bears saw different things in the current results of the “German sell-off”. And - what you wanted 😄

First, let's go through the numbers and facts. Right now, the German government has 23,244 BTC worth $1.348 billion left in its wallet. Today, the German government moved#BTCto exchanges: 4,614 coins worth $362 million. Just four days ago, on July 5, they had 41,226 BTC worth $2.28 billion.  And at the beginning of 2024, Germany had 52,000 BTC. 

Cryptanalyst EmberCN rightly noted yesterday that at the current rate of sales, the German authorities will get rid of all their BTC in two days. And this will cease to be a factor of pressure on the market.

And Mike Saylor from #Microstrategy, looking at the speed at which Germany is selling off its BTC reserves, repeated the phrase that everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve. Hinting that Germany will buy BTC in the future. But it's much more expensive.

WHAT ARE THE BULLS TALKING ABOUT?

The fact that the speed and quality of the absorption of German BTC by the market is quite optimistic. This is indicated, in particular, by#Glassnodedata.

Yes, there is a decrease. But this is definitely not a collapse. Especially considering that as a FUD theme for the market, German sales are paired with the return of assets to Mt.Gox clients.

WHAT ARE THE BEARS TALKING ABOUT?

They draw attention to the fact that, according to the same #Arkham, yesterday 3,623 BTC returned from the Kraken, Bitstamp and Coinbase crypto exchanges to a German wallet.

There was a hunch that this was part of the assets that they did not have time to sell and were returned back. A more specific bearish assumption (no more) is that the reverse sending is due to the inability to sell BTC at the government-mandated price fork and on the open market. In other words, that there is no demand for Germany's supply, that buyers are weak. BUT in fairness, assets were periodically returned to the German wallet before this. Just not in such volumes.

Spot On Chain believes that the country’s government has decided to switch to BTC sales on the over-the-counter (OTC) market.

And this, in fact, was the most logical step initially. Unless there were no people willing to buy their volumes at OTC and that’s why they left the market.

The maximum concentration of bearish assessments on the situation is given by Jacob King, cryptanalyst and founder of the#WhaleWireresource. For him, the sale of BTC by Germany is a test of the market’s maturity, and the crypto market itself is almost a liquid-free scam from scammers. He attributes the entire decrease in BTC by -25% to the German sale and fears that other countries will also start selling.

Here is a full quote from one of his posts:

“The German government is not just selling its confiscated bitcoins to get a few extra billion dollars in the bank. For them it's pocket change.

This is a test. They want to assess the financial stability and security of Bitcoin by checking how much “real” demand there is. Hint: not that big!

Considering that BTC is down almost 25% since they first started, and almost 48% of orders are rejected due to insufficient buyers, it is safe to say that Bitcoin is failing the test.

But we already knew that this would happen. It's not news that this entire market is supported by fraudulent Chinese exchanges and stablecoins."

Subjectively, it looks like outright FUD, playing along in the interests of those who are interested in pushing the price lower. For working off shorts or for cheaper purchases. And no more. Real dumps are carried out on the market without warning. And the German theme for the market is already used FUD material. Like, at one time,#Grayscalesales.

This is the picture. And against the backdrop of all this, against the backdrop of periodic sales of#BTCby the US and Germany, the government of El Salvador continues to increase its BTC portfolio, steadily buying 1 BTC every day. Their portfolio currently stands at 5,805 BTC.

The small and lively state continues to collect the first cryptocurrency. Having already shown the IMF that they were wrong and their economy did not collapse after accepting BTC as a means of payment.