The short and pleasant weekend rebound has passed. The non-farm and unemployment data of the week have begun to boost traders' expectations for a rate cut in September, but today the German government has started to transfer coins again. The German government address has transferred 13,466 BTC (worth $819.3 million) and currently holds 39,826 BTC (worth $2.29 billion). The market is still experiencing short-selling pressure. Most of the tokens in the market have returned to Friday's price. The total market value of cryptocurrencies has fallen to $2.12 trillion, a 30% retracement from the current high of $2.8 trillion. This week's CPI macro data is still important, currently expected to be 3.1, and the previous value is 3.3.

Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 143 million US dollars on July 5, with the main inflow coming from FBTC, while Grayscale GBTC continued to outflow.

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said in the media: I would be shocked if the spot Ethereum ETF is not listed and traded in the next two weeks. It is possible to launch later next week, but it is more likely to be the week of July 15. Whether it is listed or not is actually the same. Since the ETF was approved, Ethereum has fallen by more than 20%, and Grayscale's ETHE negative premium has basically been equalized. So if everyone is listed together, Grayscale will still flow out. We will see when the time comes. It is impossible to use the situation of Bitcoin to measure the inflow and outflow ratio of the Ethereum ETF.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, the distribution of 21 million BTC is as follows:

- Percentage of individual holdings: 57%;

- Lost BTC percentage: 17.6%;

-Percentage of BTC to be mined: 6.6%;

- Satoshi Nakamoto wallet share: 5.2%;

-BTC ETF share: 3.9%;

-Company share: 3.6%;

-Miners: 3.4%

- Government share: 2.7%.

Most of the chips are still distributed in the hands of individuals, so the distribution of Bitcoin chips is still extremely decentralized and very reasonable.

This week's one-time large unlock:

Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 9:59 pm Beijing time on July 12, accounting for 2.49% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$63 million;

Xai (XAI) will unlock approximately 198.4 million tokens at 5:30 pm Beijing time on July 9, accounting for 71.59% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$55 million;

Unisat released product updates for BTC layer 1 asset swaps. Most of the development work on Swap based on the Bitcoin mainnet has been completed. In addition, the expansion plan Fractal Swap is scheduled to be launched in September and will implement a competitive rollup mechanism, allowing users to package their rollup results into the sorter and earn transaction fees (brc-20 sats) generated by all transactions in the rollup. This process is similar to miners submitting packaged transactions to the network and receiving block rewards. Affected by this news, SATS was directly pulled up. This is considered a strong token empowerment. The BRC20 inscription itself, which was born last year, has no landing application scenarios except staking, but now with the support of Unisat, sats has become applicable.

Market Interpretation

This morning, Bitcoin's second test was fast and sharp. This magnitude of decline looks like it is going to set a new low. The current rebound has no volume and no magnitude. I don't think it looks like a second bottom. We have to wait for today's close to judge. Currently, Bitcoin is still severely suppressed by the 5-day line. It is a typical bear market, but if today's close forms a double bottom, it may not set a new low in the short term.

Zooming in and looking at the weekly chart will make people more excited. The weekly RSI indicator is close to oversold, and has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks. Looking at the past 2018, there have been only two weekly closings that fell into the oversold zone (312 was also reached, but it was finally recovered). One was the deep bear market in November 2018, and the other was the deep bear market in June 2022. Both times occurred in the deep bear market, and both times were the bottom of the bear market. So at present, there will either be a weekly rebound and then fall below 50,000, otherwise it should not directly break 50,000 this week. If there is a new low this week, then 51,000-53,000 may be the lowest point of this round. Now it is only 5 points away from this range, not much difference, just bear with it! But the bottom is the bottom, and the turn is the turn. Touching the bottom does not mean that it will turn around soon.

The two cakes are still linked to the market

In terms of cottage:

NOT became the pioneer of the weekend rebound. NOT is backed by the TON ecosystem, and it is fully circulated online. The project is also launching favorable news, which really makes retail investors speculative. If you are optimistic about the TON ecosystem, then NOT, as the most popular project in the ecosystem, is also the pioneer and should be worth participating in.

The worst rebound should be related to the Ethereum ecosystem. Staking and other things are no longer possible. It is far worse than the SOL ecosystem.

Another thing worth mentioning is EDU. BN posted that something was going to happen on the 14th, but no one knew what it was. However, CZ has always emphasized the need for education. This wave of price increases inevitably leads to some speculation. Could it be related to education?

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index: 28 (Fear)

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#edu #Notcion #ETHETF $XAI $NOT