Breaking news! !
Yesterday's non-farm payrolls data had one negative and one positive!
The price of the pie rebounded from $53,000 to $57,000, and the market is going to be positive next!
The Fed will definitely cut rates twice this year!
Derivatives traders are certain that the Fed will cut rates twice this year
U.S. Treasury bonds rose, yields fell, and mixed data on the labor market kept traders betting that Fed officials would cut rates this year. Although the June non-farm payrolls report showed higher-than-expected job growth, data from previous months was revised downward and unemployment rose. Derivatives market traders further increased their bets on rate cuts, and their expected probability of two rate cuts this year once again reached 100%. It is currently believed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates as early as September is about 76%.
Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investment at Thornburg Investment Management, said, "I think there is still room for U.S. bonds to rise. Judging from Powell's recent statements, he has a strong tendency to start a moderate easing cycle. The labor market is returning to a better balance, inflation faces downside risks, and the economy may slide into recession." Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock, said, "To solidify expectations of a rate cut in September, another round of data is needed, and more importantly, inflation data next week and next month's data."
