The US dollar index fell sharply after some economic data were released yesterday. US companies added 150,000 jobs in June, which was lower than the expected 165,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week exceeded expectations. Most economic data are bad, so if high interest rates continue to be maintained, the economy will only go downhill, so the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have recovered, and the US stock market opened for half a day yesterday and rose. Only Bitcoin fell below 60,000 again this morning, and there was a sharp acceleration of the decline, with more than 300 million US dollars in long orders liquidated in 24 hours.

On July 3, the Bitcoin ETF had a total net outflow of US$20.5 million, Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of US$27 million, and Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of US$6.5 million.

According to f2pool data, at $0.06 per kWh, Shenma M30S++ (shutdown price $57,513), Shenma M33S++ (shutdown price $57,514), Avalon A1346 (shutdown price $55,657), Antminer S19 Pro (shutdown price $54,813) and other mining machines are close to the shutdown price. Many miners are close to the surrender price, which historically usually means that the price has bottomed out.

Standard Chartered Bank is still predicting that Bitcoin will hit a new high in August and reach $100,000 during the US presidential election in November. Obviously, the butt determines the head, so will it turn around in July and August as I said? We will know after July.

Jupiter launched the Meme coin trading platform Ape, which can automatically monitor new Meme coins and perform security checks. At the same time, JUP is listed on the Korean exchange UPBIT.

In the morning, it seemed that the bulls had been basically wiped out. This time, the bulls should have been completely defeated. Will this be the last time the bulls are killed?

Bitcoin's STH-MVRV has reached 0.9, which is the relative value mentioned before. Currently, 0.9 corresponds to Bitcoin's price of 58,000. In a strong bull market, STH-MVRV will rebound when it touches the green line, and in a weak bull market, STH-MVRV will seek a balance point between the green line and the blue line. Once it falls below the blue line, even if the bull market is still there, it will take a long time to repair the trend. In other words, it can basically be declared that the mid-term bull market is over.

According to the above situation, I think that there will be no more bulls in the short term. 57,500 is also a key position, which is the lower edge of the rising trend line starting from October 2023. Therefore, considering comprehensively, through the analysis of on-chain data and technical structure, it can be said that if it breaks 57,000 or even 56,000, it will not be able to turn over, and this quarter may be a bear market. Therefore, the non-agricultural and unemployment data that will affect the market tomorrow are still particularly important. It depends on whether it is a sweet date or the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

Erbing plunged even harder today. The gains caused by the news of the approval of the ETF have been almost consumed, and it came back the same way it went up.

In terms of cottage:

There is almost no increase in the market. The market is in despair. Qijue is really desperate.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index: 44 (Neutral)

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