Market Analysis – BTC’s sluggish rebound hits bottom again, Ethereum ETF may be launched in mid-month

BTC ended with a 7% drop in June. In early July, BTC rose all the way to the planned red pressure zone of around US$63,000, with a maximum of over US$64,000. However, it began to fall again yesterday evening, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was dovish early yesterday morning. It has not prevented BTC from falling further. The current price has fallen back to around US$61,000 again. The AltCoin market has also weakened simultaneously. Only the SOL ecosystem has performed relatively strongly in the overall market.

There are two things we can focus on in July. The first is that Mt. Gox will start paying billions of dollars worth of BTC to creditors in July. This news has caused considerable market fluctuations last week, but most analysts believe that the The pressure will only be short-lived, and the market has enough liquidity to withstand these selling pressures. In addition, regarding the application for Ethereum spot ETF, the SEC has required issuers of Ethereum spot ETF to submit a modified S-1 registration form before ⅞. Therefore, if extrapolated according to the time schedule, theoretically mid-July or July at the latest You can start trading Ethereum spot ETFs before the end of the month. You can pay special attention to ETH eco-related currencies. ENS has performed relatively well in the past week. At the same time, Solana fund management company VanEck submitted the first Solana spot ETF in the United States based on SOL price. Therefore, the related ecosystem has performed well in the past week, but the chance of passing it is currently very low, and there may only be short-term speculation. The effect will be analyzed in detail in the following pages.

From a technical point of view, BTC has fallen back to the bottom range, and the support and pressure zones have not changed. Operations can be based on the range operations mentioned in last week's weekly report. The bottom is below 61,000 US dollars, and the pressure zone is 63,000 US dollars. Stop loss can be set Below the previous low of $58,000. Since March, the overall market has lacked the power to rise and lacked a single direction. The remaining players in the market have cut each other or the sky-high price of VC coins has reached the high point. The operation is very difficult. During this period, the recommendation is still to be conservative.

Binance Copying Analysis

GTRadar – BULL

Copy link GTRadar – Balanced Follow the link

• The yields of "GTRadar - BULL" and "GTRadar - Balance" in the past 7 days are -0.64% and -0.32% for the former, and -15.48% and -2.03% for the latter in the past 30 days.

• The market has continued to fluctuate over the past week. BTC briefly challenged US$63,000 and then fell back to the support of US$61,000. Other AltCoins also fell simultaneously, which was equivalent to losing all the small gains in the past few days. Only SOL performed relatively strongly due to the submission of ETF applications. The overall investment group yield curve has not changed much in the past week.

• Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds about 70% of the net long position (300% of the full position), among which SOL and ETH hold the largest positions.

• Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds a net long position of about 30% (full position is 300%), and the long orders are mainly ETH and BNB.

• The long-term returns of a follower who frequently changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.

Potential market opportunities

SOL ETF Adds New Narrative, But Don't Get Too Optimistic

This week, Solana fund management company VanEck submitted the first Solana spot ETF in the United States based on SOL price, which injected a shot in the arm to SOL token holders and also provided a new value narrative for the token. theme. However, when we return to a rational perspective, the likelihood of a Solana spot ETF receiving SEC approval does not appear to be that high.

The biggest reason lies in the asset positioning of SOL itself. First of all, the SEC has always regarded Bitcoin as a commodity, while Ethereum has not been clearly defined as a security. In contrast, the SEC has clearly stated that SOL is an unregistered security in the lawsuits against Coinbase and Kraken exchanges, and these lawsuits are still ongoing. It is unlikely that the SEC will slap itself in the face and agree to approve the listing of Solana spot ETF. .

On the other hand, another key to the approval of the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF is that the SEC has approved the “Futures ETF” of Bitcoin and Ethereum as early as 2021. The issuer provided a solid position , that is, "the SEC has no reason to approve futures ETFs but reject spot ETFs." Asset management company Grayscale won a lawsuit with the SEC based on this in August 2023, forcing the agency to re-examine the Bitcoin spot ETF application. However, no futures ETF for SOL currently exists on the securities market, adding another hurdle to potential approval.

The current mainstream consensus in the market is that unless the political parties in the United States change after the election, the White House and the SEC undergo a personnel reshuffle, and relax their tough attitude towards cryptocurrencies, the SOL ETF is "likely" to be approved, but it is expected to be as soon as possible. Launch is not likely until 2025.

Solana’s tenacious technology and ecology

Since Solana cannot get approval, does that mean SOL is not an investment worthy of attention? We believe that even if the likelihood of ETF approval is low, Solana is still the most promising blockchain network in the current cryptocurrency industry.

The collapse of FTX/Alameda caused Solana, which had been "strongly bound" to the group in the past, to face severe selling pressure. However, SOL survived under such pressure and even hit a record high, with many institutions trading at 64~100 The acquisition of a large number of locked Solana from FTX's legacy at prices ranging from US dollars shows that these institutions still have considerable confidence in SOL.

In addition, in this year's meme currency wave, Solana once again demonstrated the vitality of its ecosystem. Many successful meme currency projects were born on the network, and the entire ecosystem benefited from this.

Solana’s profitability far exceeds its peers

Don’t forget that the public chain is actually a product with revenue, cash flow and profit (from Gas), which means its business model is clear. According to data from DefiLlama, Solana’s revenue has experienced huge growth this year, even far exceeding the previous bull market. From this point of view, except for Ethereum and Tron (eating the dividends of USDT), there are almost no competitors that can match it.

After watching Solana, let’s take a look at Polkadot, which was hailed as a king-level project back then. The foundation released its financial report this week. In the first half of 2024, it spent a budget of US$87 million. In the end, not only did the ecosystem not grow, the remaining funds even May only last 2 years. Projects like Polkadot abound in the cryptocurrency industry, and there are only a handful of protocols that actually make money. When we discuss value investing, we still have to return to the most basic "P = E × PE" valuation model:

P represents the market price of the stock.

E stands for earnings per share, which is a company's net profit divided by the total number of shares outstanding.

PE is the price-to-earnings ratio, also known as the price-to-earnings ratio, which shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings per share.

Although short-term token prices will be affected by market sentiment and narrative hype, in the long run, value will eventually return to profitability.

hot news

Suspected U.S. government-related addresses transferred $241 million worth of Bitcoin to exchanges

In recent weeks, both the U.S. and German governments have begun moving confiscated cryptocurrency assets to exchanges. According to data from on-chain intelligence platform Arkham Intelligence, a cryptocurrency wallet labeled as controlled by the US government transferred approximately 3,940 Bitcoins (worth $241 million) to the Coinbase exchange on the 26th. It is reported that the Bitcoins were initially seized from a drug dealer named Banmeet Singh

VanEck files for Solana ETF in U.S., says SOL is a commodity

Fund manager VanEck has filed for a Solana ETF in the U.S. that would track the price of SOL. According to VanEck's S-1 registration statement, the "VanEck Solana Trust" (VanEck Solana Trust) plans to be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange, a securities exchange of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The fund will hold Solana's native token SOL, " and its shares will be valued daily based on the reported MarketVectorTM Solana benchmark rate."

Cryptocurrency was not mentioned in the US presidential election debate, and related meme coins fell sharply

2024 年美國總統選舉首場辯論已在台灣時間週五（28日）稍早結束，現任總統拜登（Joe Biden）和前總統川普（Donald Trump）在這場長達 90 分鐘的辯論當中提及經濟、墮胎、移民和外交政策等議題，但並未提到加密貨幣。相關迷因幣並沒有因為這場辯論而家大炒作力度，反而在辯論開始後出現暴跌。

Kraken founder donates 1 million ETH to Trump, criticizes Biden administration for doing nothing to the crypto industry

Kraken cryptocurrency exchange founder Jesse Powell announced in a post on X today that he has donated $1 million to the campaign of U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump. Jesse Powell criticized the Biden administration in a tweet for doing nothing to deal with the oppression of the cryptocurrency industry, and said that he would support Trump to ensure that the United States can continue to maintain its leadership in blockchain technology.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sues blockchain software developer Consensys for violating securities laws

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally charged blockchain software developer Consensys with violating securities laws, according to legal documents. The SEC charged the company with operating an unregistered broker-dealer and engaging in the offering and sale of securities through its wallet, MetaMask. It is also claimed that the liquidity staking services of Lido and Rocket Pool are securities businesses.

People familiar with the matter: U.S. SEC requires Ethereum ETF issuers to amend Form S-1 and resubmit

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has returned Form S-1 submitted by the issuer of a potential Ethereum ETF, The Block reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The returned forms came with simple comments, and publishers were given until July 8 to process the comments and resubmit them, according to a source at one publisher.

87 million mg in half a year! Will the remaining funds of the Polkadot Foundation be burned out within two years?

The Polkadot Foundation released its financial report for the first half of 2024 last weekend. According to the report, the foundation has spent $87 million (11 million DOTs) in the first 6 months of 2024. According to the official statement, if the cash burn rate is US$87 million in half a year, the annual net loss will be approximately US$108 million (17 million DOT). If the DOTUSD exchange rate remains unchanged, the remaining funds of the Polkadot Foundation will be burned out within two years. .

Circle is approved to issue stablecoins USDC and EURC under the European MiCA regulatory framework

Stablecoin issuer Circle announced on Monday (1st) that it had obtained a license and approval to issue stablecoins under the regulatory framework of the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA). Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said at a press conference in Paris that Circle is the first stablecoin issuer in the world to comply with the MiCA regulatory framework, and the relevant rules have come into effect on July 1. Circle will be able to issue the U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC and the euro stablecoin EURC under this regulatory framework.


Pendle's total locked asset value plummets by 3 billion magnesium

According to data from DefiLlama, DeFi protocol Pendle has seen nearly $3 billion in outflows of total locked asset value in the past, with the majority being so-called Liquidity Rehypothecation Tokens (LRTs). It is reported that the reason why the Pendle protocol has experienced such a large-scale capital outflow is mainly related to the expiration of some products.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index falls to rare negative level

Data from blockchain data analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase Premium Index has fallen to rare negative levels. Since negative values ​​of this depth have often occurred near local lows in price in the past, this could be a sign that Bitcoin is bottoming.

AI project Bittensor suspended on-chain transactions to investigate the attack, and TAO tokens fell by more than 10%

Developers of decentralized artificial intelligence project Bittensor temporarily halted operations on its blockchain network after discovering a suspected security breach in user wallets. According to on-chain sleuth ZachXBT, the attack may be related to a leak of private keys.

The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!

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