Market Analysis – Trump’s polls fell after the US presidential debate, and the cryptocurrency market fell simultaneously
Although the price of BTC has rebounded significantly in the past few days, it fell again after today's debate. Altcoins also fell by about 5%. BTC is still in a downward trend so far, and it is likely to fall back to in the short term. The level of US$54,000 ~ US$55,000, but there are several phenomena this week that may indicate that the bear market may be about to see the light.
First of all, BTC Dominance has been fluctuating at a high level for a long time. Last week, it fell below the 200 EMA line at the 4-hour level for the first time. This time BTC rebounded and it can be clearly seen that the rebound of altcoins was stronger. This means that altcoins have grown over time. Convergence and get out of the bottom, just wait for a good time to erupt.
The BTC spot ETF also saw inflows for the first time yesterday after many consecutive days of outflows. Although this data is not directly related to the price, it can represent that the attitude of institutions has begun to turn positive.
At the same time, cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research said in a market report released on Tuesday that the 30-day average funding rate of Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual contracts fell to negative levels, which has only happened six times since 2018. The report notes that based on previous instances where the metric flipped into negative territory, Bitcoin’s average return over the subsequent 90 days was 79%, with a median 90-day return of 55%.
Based on the above signs, we should be optimistic about the next market.
However, these data are all long-term data and may take a period of fermentation. At this stage, the market is still in the trend of constantly "drawing arches". For most investors and traders in the market, it is undoubtedly a "difficult period". model". We believe this situation may be difficult to escape in the near future. Under this premise, it would be wiser for spot investors to reserve part of the funds for operations in the "simple mode" cycle where it is easier to make money, or to adopt the DCA strategy to continue to accumulate funds and avoid potential losses as much as possible. choose.
On the other hand, due to the lack of narrative and catalysts, the price of Bitcoin and other altcoins in the short term will most likely continue to be dominated by macroeconomic events. For example, the US presidential election debate started this morning, and the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released tonight.
US presidential election debate
In the US presidential election debate, Trump and Harris discussed many topics such as abortion rights, the proliferation of guns, and the war in Ukraine, but did not mention cryptocurrency.
Of the two major candidates, Trump is seen as the more friendly to the cryptocurrency industry, promising to end the U.S. government's "illegal and un-American suppression" of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry. In contrast, it is still unclear what stance Harris will take on the cryptocurrency industry. In addition, Harris' future policy stance announced this week also does not include cryptocurrency, leading many people to believe that Harris may Maintain the Biden administration’s current regulatory stance on digital assets.
In this hearing, Harris' performance seemed to be better than Trump's, which caused Trump's chance of winning to fall by 3% after the hearing, while Harris's chance of winning increased by 3% correspondingly, returning to a tie.
Because of this, Bitcoin has fallen sharply since the start of the debate, sliding from nearly $58,000 to $56,000, and the decline of altcoins has been even more modest. This seems to reflect the market's view of the debate.
CPI and September interest rate cut expectations
On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is crucial to the Federal Reserve's policy decision, will also be released at 8:30 tonight. The market currently predicts that the annual growth rate will further decline to 2.5%.
Although U.S. non-farm payrolls in August were lower than expected, the overall data was disappointing but not enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by two percentage points this month, so the extent of the potential rate cut remains unclear. In this environment, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be key to the Fed's decision-making.
According to FedWatch data, the possibility of a one-point interest rate cut in September has rebounded significantly compared with last week. If there are no surprises in the CPI this time, there will not be much suspense about a one-point interest rate cut this month. In addition, if the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates by two percentage points when CPI is in line with expectations, it may signal that action is being taken to prevent a recession, a move that may panic investors.
Binance Copying Analysis GTRadar – BULL
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL", "GTRadar - Balance" and "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain OKX" in the past 7 days are -1.47%, -3.32% and -4.58% respectively, and the yields in the past 30 days are - 6.13%, -5.36% and -2.29%.
The market has also been experiencing wide fluctuations in the past week, and each investment group has reduced the order volume, but still suffered some losses.
Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of 5%, mainly BNB.
Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds about 20% of its net long positions, mainly BNB and BTC.
Currently, "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain" holds a net short position of about 5%, mainly SOL and ETH.
The long-term returns of a follower who frequently changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follow-up easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
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Cryptocurrency was not mentioned in the U.S. presidential debate, and Trump and Harris’ chances of winning are once again crossed!
The debate between U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Trump has ended. During the debate, the two discussed abortion rights, the proliferation of guns, and the war in Ukraine, but still did not mention cryptocurrency. After the debate, Trump's chance of winning fell sharply by 3%, while Harris' chance of winning increased by 3%, and the two were tied again.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
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