Activities of large players drive market trends

XRP prices have soared 430% in the past 30 days to reach their highest levels since 2018, surprising many traders on Crypto Twitter. The rally began in early November as the Republican victory in the U.S. election reignited investor confidence in U.S. cryptocurrency companies such as XRP and Ripple Labs.

According to CryptoQuant data, large holders (commonly known as "whales") played an important role in this price surge. Fund flows between high-value wallets and exchanges have continued to be high over the past month, with activity several times higher than at any time in the past. ​

Investing in ICOs early is the only way to achieve 10,000x returns, there is no huge gain without huge risk.

Author: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX

Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow

Disclaimer

Any opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and should not be relied upon for investment decisions, nor should they be considered investment advice.

text

People sometimes behave irrationally out of desire or blindness. Unfortunately, many Maelstrom portfolio companies appear to be suffering from a CEXually Transmitted Disease. Some affected founders mistakenly believe that they can obtain so-called "ultimate returns" only by following the instructions of certain well-known centralized exchanges (CEX). These instructions include: pushing up a certain indicator, hiring a certain person, allocating a certain number of tokens, listing tokens on a specified date, or even temporarily changing the listing plan. These desire-driven companies have forgotten the needs of users and the original purpose of cryptocurrencies. If you are suffering from this disease, please come to my clinic, I have the antidote - ICO. Let me break it down for you.

According to a statement released on December 2, Wall Street's largest publicly listed Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings (MARA) has increased the scale of its convertible bond issuance from the previous $700 million to $850 million, with part of the net proceeds planned for future Bitcoin acquisition plans.

These zero-interest bonds will mature in 2031 and can be converted at the company's option into cash, common stock, or a combination of both. The company expects to raise approximately $835 million in net proceeds from this issuance, and if additional bonds are fully subscribed, total proceeds could reach $982 million.

According to Korean media (Herald Business), as the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market continue to rise after former U.S. President Donald Trump was re-elected, the so-called "Trump market" has shaken the sentiment of Korean investors. In the banking industry, demand deposits, known as "standby funds," lost 27 trillion won (about $1.9 billion) in just five months. In order to pursue investment returns, funds flowed from safe assets to risky assets, setting off a large-scale "money of funds."

A woman in her 50s surnamed Kim said in an interview: "The cryptocurrency market is so hot now. I think this is an opportunity again. I don't want to become a 'poor person' (벼락거지, Note: refers to are people who have become relatively poor due to the sharp rise in real estate and other asset prices).”

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported on X that sources indicate Trump may announce the successor to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler as soon as tomorrow.

NEW: @realDonaldTrump’s pick to replace @GaryGensler as @SECGov Chair could be announced as soon as tomorrow, sources tell @FoxBusiness. Stay tuned.

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) December 3, 2024

According to previous reports by Zombit, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler announced last month that he will officially step down on January 20, 2025. It is reported that Trump is considering several potential candidates for SEC Chairman, including: former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, BakerHostetler partner Teresa Goody Guillén, former Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks, and current SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, known as "Crypto Mom." Notably, most of these candidates have an open and supportive attitude towards cryptocurrency.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently accepted an interview with Colin Wu, the founder of (Wu Says Blockchain), where he shared in fluent but non-native Chinese how he connected with the Chinese blockchain community, insights into the cultural differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum, and his expectations and challenges for the future of blockchain.

Wanxiang once saved Ethereum from crisis

Vitalik recalled his experience of coming to China for the first time in 2014, where he stayed for three weeks in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen, extensively interacting with Chinese miners, exchanges, and blockchain projects. He specifically mentioned that when the Ethereum Foundation faced a financial crisis in 2015, Wanxiang Group purchased 410,000 Ether at a price of $1.20 each, which provided the $500,000 needed to help the foundation through the crisis.

The well-known sports brand Nike's digital wearables NFT startup RTFKT announced on Monday that it will cease operations. According to the announcement, the company plans to end services by the end of January 2025, but its NFTs built on the Ethereum blockchain will still be accessible and usable.

“Today, we announce the plan to end RTFKT operations.” RTFKT stated in a press release: “To commemorate and preserve this groundbreaking legacy, we will launch an updated website showcasing the groundbreaking achievements that defined the RTFKT journey.”

pic.twitter.com/ySShPa0I7r

The Web3 gambling platform ZKasino, which previously promised refunds, misappropriated user funds by depositing all 10,535 ETH that should have belonged to users into Aave as collateral, and borrowed a total of 53.91 million DAI, while buying 15,645 ETH to leverage long on ETH.

According to data monitored by the on-chain analyst Ember, the ZKasino project closed its position this morning for a total profit of 651.5 ETH ($2.37 million). Subsequently, the project transferred a total of 11,186.5 ETH (approximately $40.75 million) belonging to users and the earnings to 9 addresses, indicating they still seem unwilling to repay.

Bitcoin has experienced a series of ups and downs in the past 24 hours. It initially started at 9 AM yesterday, dropping from a high of $98,000 all the way down to $95,000. Later, around 9 PM, MicroStrategy announced the acquisition of 15,400 bitcoins at approximately $95,976, leading to a rebound that brought the price back above $97,000.

However, just as the upward momentum was starting to return, around 12:30 AM, news broke that the U.S. government had transferred 19,800 bitcoins, with a total value of $1.92 billion, and that 10,000 of these bitcoins (approximately $968 million) had been transferred to Coinbase. As a result, Bitcoin plummeted again, falling below $95,000.

Bitcoin's challenge to the $100,000 mark was unsuccessful, but the outlook remains bright.

Bitcoin reached an annual peak of $99,468 on November 23, with the greed index climbing to 97, but ultimately failed to break the $100,000 mark and fell back to $91,290. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating in the range of $95,000 to $97,000. Although short-term volatility exists, experts generally believe that Bitcoin is in the mid-stage of a bull market and its upward potential is still highly anticipated by the market.

Global policy dynamics: the trend of nationalizing Bitcoin reserves.

The United States approved BTC and ETH spot ETFs this year, leading a new trend in global cryptocurrency policy. After Trump's re-election, he actively recruited officials supportive of cryptocurrencies to promote the implementation of more friendly policies. Following the U.S. proposal to include Bitcoin as national reserve funds, rumors have also emerged in Canada in recent days.

The NFT market is heating up again with the recovery of the broader cryptocurrency market. According to CoinGecko data from December, the total market cap of the sector has reached $8.8 billion, a growth of 17.3% from a week ago. NFT sales have also risen significantly, with November NFT sales amounting to approximately $562 million, an increase of 57% compared to October, making it the highest sales month in the last six months.

Source: CryptoSlam

However, in terms of the number of traders, the number of independent NFT buyers in November decreased by about 31% to 664,405 compared to the previous month, significantly down from over 1 million in May this year. The number of independent sellers decreased by 30% to 429,020. The total number of NFT transactions was approximately 5.33 million, a decrease of about 26% compared to the previous month.

A former Facebook executive detailed the failure of the company's stablecoin and blockchain project Diem (formerly known as Libra), which ultimately led many team members to turn to other blockchain projects.

According to David Marcus, former head of Diem and former board member of Coinbase, the underlying political conspiracy was the project's downfall, which he called a "100% political strangulation" in a lengthy post on X.

"The government or regulatory agencies no longer have any legal or regulatory means to terminate the project. This is 100% a political strangulation—executed by intimidating banks that are subject to government control."

A former high-ranking Facebook executive outlined the failure process of the company's stablecoin and blockchain project Diem (formerly known as Libra), which ultimately led many team members to turn to other blockchain projects.

According to David Marcus, the former head of Diem and former board member of Coinbase, the political machinations behind the scenes were the project's downfall, which he described as a "100% political killing" in a lengthy post on X.

"The government or regulators no longer have any legal or regulatory means to terminate the project. This is 100% a political killing—executed by intimidating banks that are subject to the government."

XRP has surged 370% in the past month.

The price of XRP tokens has been rising continuously in recent weeks, and today its market capitalization surged to $140 billion, surpassing USDT to become the third largest cryptocurrency in the market. This surge in XRP seems to be closely related to the contributions of Korean investors.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, in the past 24 hours, the trading volume of XRP on spot markets shows that the Korean exchange Upbit ranks second with a share of 12.76%, only behind Binance.

On the other hand, within Upbit, the trading volume of the XRP/KRW trading pair accounts for as much as 25%, which is about 10 times that of the Bitcoin/KRW trading pair.

Against the backdrop of continuous positive news over the past few weeks, Ripple's XRP token has continued to rise, increasing by 376% since the US election voting day (November 6 Taiwan time), reaching $2.45, returning to price levels not seen since January 2018, when it briefly touched historical highs of around $3.40. The surge in coin price also pushed its market capitalization past the $100 billion mark, reaching $140 billion before the deadline.

The recent wave of XRP's surge is related to reports released over the weekend. Fox Business cited insiders last Friday stating that the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has indicated it will approve the issuance of the RLUSD stablecoin by Ripple. If approved, Ripple will be allowed to legally issue RLUSD tokens to the public, potentially launching as early as December 4.

Decline in Bitcoin dominance

According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has dropped from 60% last month to 56%, marking a significant downward trend. At the same time, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's dominance is approaching its long-term support trend line, which may break through a critical technical support level that has lasted for years.

Meanwhile, Ethereum's dominance has also fallen to 12.9%, while the dominance of other cryptocurrencies has increased from 28.1% last month to 31.5%, showing a clear growth trend.

Many market analysts have pointed out that funds are gradually flowing from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies, and the decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum's dominance may indicate the arrival of the 'Altseason'.

According to a previous report by Zombit, Microsoft is set to vote on whether to evaluate Bitcoin investment at the shareholders' meeting on December 10, and Michael Saylor, chairman of MicroStrategy and a well-known Bitcoin supporter, has submitted a three-minute presentation to the Microsoft Board of Directors and CEO Satya Nadella at the request of the proposal's initiator, aimed at promoting the value of Bitcoin as an investment asset.

My 3-minute presentation to the $MSFT Board of Directors and @SatyaNadella, articulating why the company should do the right thing and adopt #Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/aHp91V9Slz

Bitcoin fell from around $98,000 to about $90,800 from Monday to Wednesday, a drop of about 7.5%. Subsequently, Bitcoin rebounded and had returned to $96,700 before the deadline. On-chain data shows that whales 'utilized' this week's decline to accumulate more Bitcoin, indicating that they played an important role in the recovery of Bitcoin's price.

On-chain data analyst Caueconomy stated on the CryptoQuant platform that after nearly $4 billion in Bitcoin losses from short-term investors were transferred to exchanges, whales (referring to wallet addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) took advantage of the market's panic sell-off to accumulate. 'On Tuesday, approximately 16,000 Bitcoins entered the reserves of the whales, and this number continued to increase yesterday, with the on-chain accumulation amounting to about $1.5 billion.'

The decentralized trading platform HyperLiquid officially launched and airdropped its native token HYPE today. The trading volume reached US$165 million in the first hour of opening, and the price also rose from the opening price of US$2 to the level of US$4, bringing the market value of the token to US$1.3 billion and the fully diluted valuation (FDV) to nearly US$4 billion.

According to the official airdrop program, 333 million tokens out of a total supply of 1 billion are already in circulation. Of the total supply:

38.88% allocated to future emissions and community rewards;

23.8% is reserved for existing and future core contributors.

According to (The Block) reports, analysts from Standard Chartered Bank and its digital asset brokerage Zodia Markets predict that the adoption rate of stablecoins will grow significantly and may account for 10% of U.S. M2 transactions in the future.

Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, and Nick Philpott, co-founder of Zodia Markets, said in a report published on Thursday:

“Currently, stablecoins only account for 1% of U.S. M2 trading volume and 1% of FX trading volume, but as the space becomes legalized, reaching 10% of these metrics is feasible.”