As long as the Fed starts to cut interest rates, the probability of a bull market will be very high, which means that a bull market may come in 2025.
However, some people believe that the real bull market will come before the first interest rate cut, because the interest rate cut at that time is the realization of good news, which may trigger a market crash. The trend of US stocks is an example.
But not everyone agrees that this round is a big bull market, and many bloggers do not expect it to be a bull market next year. Some bloggers I know believe that 2025 may be the end of the bull market, and the bull market may have ended.
Of course, 2025 may not be a big bull market. The next few years may be a continuation of this wave of bull market, or even a long-term bull market. But it all depends on the expectation of interest rate cuts. Once this expectation is there, the market may fall sharply.
However, this is not the case. Let's review the last round of interest rate cuts: In July 2019, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, and the federal interest rate dropped from 2.25 to 2, then to 1.75 in September, to 1.5 in October, and directly to 1 in March of the following year, and finally further to 0~0.5.
The entire interest rate cut process lasted for 8 months, from July 2019 to March 2020. According to this logic, the bull market should have ended in July 2019 because the expectation of interest rate cuts had already appeared. But in fact, the big bull market in the currency circle did not really begin until April after the end of the interest rate cut.
Therefore, even if the interest rate cuts begin in 2025, if the interest rate cuts start in September this year and last for about a year, the big bull market may be even crazier. This is a reasonable speculation. The interest rate cut is indeed an important good news, but this good news takes time to realize.
The last round of interest rate cuts lasted for eight months, and this round may last for more than a year because the current interest rate has reached about 5.5. It is possible to drop from 5.5 to around 2, or even to 1.5. The goal is to drop to around 2, but 2 may not be stable enough, and it may drop to 1.5, or even 1, or 0.25. These are all future things that we cannot predict.
Finally, if you are a complete novice and you are excited to enter the cryptocurrency circle after seeing BTC hit a record high, then I suggest you follow me first, learn the knowledge of the cryptocurrency circle with me, and improve your basic skills. Only by laying a solid foundation can you go further.
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