Potential rally at #Bitcoin could face resistance at $65,000, according to OnChain analysis
Short-term wallet holders racking up losses could liquidate holdings near $65,000, limiting a further rally in Bitcoin's price.
June's decline, which reversed May's rally, came primarily due to mining company selling and concerns that ETF inflows represent non-directional arbitrage bets rather than outright bullish bets.
Notably, the drop has pushed prices well below the widely tracked aggregate cost basis of short-term bitcoin holders, or the cost of holding wallets for 155 days or less. At the time of writing, the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders was $64,592, according to data source LookIntoBitcoin. Onchain analytics companies consider the realized price as the basis of the aggregate cost, which reflects the average price at which coins were last spent on the chain.
In other words, short-term holders are now facing losses or holding positions in the red and could try to exit the market at a loss or break even, which could increase selling pressure near $65,000.
"The price of bitcoin has fallen below short-term holders' aggregate cost basis for the first time since August 2023. In the near term, we should expect some resistance around the ~$65,000 level as market speculators In the short term they may seek to exit their positions at a 'breakeven' level," Blockware Intelligence analysts said in the latest edition of the newsletter.
“Last summer, when BTC lost the STH RP [price realized] support level, the price traded sideways for another two months before finally rising again,” the analysts added.