Bitcoin emphasized last week that we must pay attention to the weekly trend. The weekly line closed at 8 this morning. At present, around 58,000 is the adjustment limit. There may be fluctuations or adjustments in the future, but the general direction has been revealed. No matter how it adjusts, July will enter a stage of gradual rise, which can be understood as a moderate rise.
As the market stabilizes, some copycat stocks will also see a rally. Everyone must cherish the opportunities from July to December, as there will be many chances to get rich overnight.
June has ended and July has arrived, and it is a period when Bitcoin prices are expected to rise strongly. What data and signs are based on to make such a view?
Bitcoin price historical data for July
Based on the historical Bitcoin price performance data from 2013 to the present, we can see that Bitcoin has negative performance in June of 2013, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022. That is, the Bitcoin price fell in June, and then the Bitcoin price rose sharply again in July.
At this stage, there is a possibility that this event will repeat itself in 2024, as Bitcoin performed poorly in June, so many people are expecting a positive performance from Bitcoin in July this year.
The hash rate retracement index dropped significantly
In addition, the second sign is that the miner computing power retracement index has dropped significantly compared to the end of 2022-early 2023.
At that time, the market had FUD about the collapse of the FTX exchange, the price of Bitcoin was around $16,000, and miners shut down and "surrendered". Because the cost of mining 1 BTC was higher than the market price of BTC, miners suffered losses.
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has continued to rise from $16,000 to $73,000.
For now, this data reinforces the fact that Bitcoin will rebound soon.
What volatility risks should we pay attention to this week?
Although Bitcoin has shown a long-awaited rise on the first day of July, it remains to be seen whether the trend has reversed. The following are several key points of observation that may bring fluctuations to the market this week:
Global Manufacturing and Services PMI
The US S&P and ISM PMI indices will be released from Monday to Wednesday, and Europe will also release the HCOB PMI index.
US non-farm payrolls
In addition to the PMI, the US will release non-farm payrolls data on Friday evening. Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4%, and the average hourly wage is expected to grow by 3.9% from June last year, the smallest annual increase in three years.
FOMC meeting minutes
On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June, which will further analyze the attitudes of officials. However, the attitudes of most officials have clearly become more conservative in recent months, so expectations should not fluctuate too much.
Some thoughts on the current copycat sector:
If you hold a weak position, prepare to adjust your position. For example, if you choose a single coin that has been pulled down before, you can adjust it to a strong coin that has risen sharply. This sector was too weak before, so you can adjust it to a sector with a lot of funds and easy to speculate, such as the AI sector, SOL sector, BRC20 sector, etc.
The prices of some copycat coins have reached historical lows, while some have returned to the prices from August to October last year. If we wait a little longer, we can build a position little by little. They can more easily show that they are heading for a W-bottom than Bitcoin. The project owners are more anxious to make money than we are. Only by pulling up the market and raising the price of chips can they make more money. The price will definitely be higher than this in the future, and some have already sneaked in.
Many people are always a step behind. When the bottom is about to be reached or the bottom is being built, they are greedy and keep waiting for a lower price instead of building positions in batches. When the market comes, they seem to be still asleep and only come to their senses after the bull market is gone.
In the short term, there are only two points that can be used to hype up copycats: the infrastructure surrounding Ethereum's ETF that is about to be reviewed, the second layer, the pledge sector, and the fully-circulated observation sector, which can be viewed as MEME. If there is a rebound, we can look to this.
Focus on 4 major events this week
1. Powell speaks on Tuesday
2. At 20:15 on Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment figures for June will be released
3. At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for June will be released.
4. Most importantly, there should be further news from Mentougou that will benefit the market before July 15th.
Although the market has rebounded, stablecoins are still in a state of outflow. Don't sell at a loss if the price drops, chase highs if the price rises, and don't sell at a loss if the price drops. In this market, many altcoins have fallen to the starting point. Keep some bullets. If the second probe continues to buy at the bottom, don't chase highs if the price rises, unless you are short, there is no way. Wait for more bullets and wait for the news from Mentougou to be further implemented, then invest large funds and directly deploy some ETH. This is the clearest and most stable solution!
The fifth month is poor, the sixth month is desperate, and the seventh month is a turnaround. The best situation at present is that the Mentougou incident in early July is properly resolved, compensation is delayed or paid in batches, inflation data drops, and expectations for a Fed rate cut increase, then a new round of bull market will be launched!
