July 1 Crypto Options Market Research Report
Pre-positioning, waiting for the wind to come; in-depth research on the target, the option strategy emerges
Coincall (No. 1 U-based copycat options), simple KYC (select HK, fill in the address)
I. Core Views
1- On the first day of the second half of the year, I still maintain last week's bullish view. It is difficult for BTC to fall below 5.4W, and it will break through the previous high. The profit and loss ratio is here. Actively position, don't lie flat.
2- Although the spot market shrank over the weekend, the price actively climbed.
3- Re-sorting the fundamentals of several L1 targets over the weekend, maintaining the previous view that sol and ton have great potential in this round, although ton has a big bug, it is expected to be detailed in a later video.
4- The implied volatility of ETH in the options market has entered the call overflow mode again. It is highly likely that the exchange rate of ETH/BTC will strengthen in July. Maintain the previous strategy; I mainly use the ratio spread at the end of July for ETH
5- Other altcoins such as KAS benefited from the new high of KRC20, and ORDI continued to accumulate power at the bottom. These high-quality targets are hard to come by.
Summary: Late June and July are both the time for layout. It is often not cost-effective to chase high when the market is really rising.
2. Options block trading
BTC weekend options block market volume is not large, mainly based on bullish strategies
buy BTC-27SEP24-100000-C
buy BTC-1JUL24-62000-C + sell BTC-5JUL24-63500-C
ETH block direct layout September long call spread 3400 positions
buy ETH-27SEP24-3400-C + sell ETH-27SEP24-4400-C
SOL block layout at the end of July (within the planet)
3. Macro market
US stocks
Last week, the market rose sharply after the release of PCE data. Although it fell during the session, it generally continued the market pattern of weak large-cap stocks and strong small-cap stocks in the US stock market last week. The index fell sharply at the end of the session, and small-cap stocks still rose against the trend. We need to pay attention to whether the small-cap stock market is coming and arrange the Russell 2000 in advance.
A-shares
The meeting time in July has been set, the market is very weak, and GJD has appeared. So in the more than 10 years since I started working, the current market sentiment should be similar to that of 2014, or even more pessimistic than that of 2014. If you are a volatility bull, I personally tend to arrange more on the call side. Now being a buyer should belong to the second batting zone this year.
